US CPI & Building permits upcoming, RBA’s Steven to speak tomorrow, what to expect?

Early morning NZ showed PPI input/output is lower than expected giving more reasons for the bears to take advantage of the weak NZD. This is in tandem with my yesterday outlook.

Now that we see the NZDUSD break down to 0.8420 (lowest) before trading back to 0.8440. Here’s an update of NZDUSD: FX Analysis – 19AUG14 – NZD

Yesterday, as I was saying that the NZDUSD doesn’t seem bullish enough to get to 38.2% or 50% retracement and looked to SHORT if the NZDUSD were to reach 0.8520. However, the NZDUSD did not passed 0.8505 and fell to 0.8420.
At this point, I do feel that the bearish movement on the NZDUSD may not hit another lower than 0.8400. I would recommend to play by ear and note of the lack of strength in the bear.
In fact, @ 0.8400 – 0.8410, I would prefer a LONG position.

 

RBA’s minutes doesn’t show much of what to expect from the RBA. Currently Members are comfortable with current monetary policy and inflation is consistent with target range. Tomorrow RBA’s Governor Steven to speak:

Here’s an update of AUDUSD analysis: FX Analysis – 19AUG14 – AUD

AUDUSD edged up to key resistance @ 0.9330 after RBA’s minutes shows that current monetary policy will remain accommodative and inflation remained consistnece with 2-3 per cent target. The main concern here would be the increasing AUDUSD while on the commodities price seems to be heading downwards.
Tomorrow we will be seeing RBA Governor Steven speech to see if there’s any attempt to jawbone down the AUD. On the other hand, tonight we will be keeping an eye on US’s CPI and building permits which would give an idea of what Yellen will be talking about at Jackson Hole.
We are current in position to SHORT AUDUSD.

 

We look to tonight US CPI & building permits data release. As I see EURUSD and GBPUSD, both look ready to commit for a retracement/correction. Recommended to LONG on these position.

 

Negativity data of the G7, Key speakers to speak and CPI/PMI coming ahead, what’s next?

As we look to the economical data coming ahead, this week would be the inflation index focus, giving more idea of the inflation target will be achieved.

Not to mentioned that last week, we suggested a LONG position for AUDUSD and NZDUSD and both missed entry point by a few pips only to see them heading towards our targetted profit area. Nevertheless, we continue our journey and this week, given that they have made some correction position, we are looking to enter upon good price and a SHORT is preferred.

Here’s the analysis: FX Analysis – 18AUG14 – AUD

As the AUDSD proceed towards 100SMAs resistance, we look at 0.9330 as the key resistance (key support previously). Taking that a short correction was made from 0.9238 up to 0.9330 (surpassing both targetted profit), 0.9330 remained strong resistance that we would want to see if the AUDUSD will trade higher than that. We do see that there’s price action and indicators divergence and a short position is preferred.

 

NZDUSD analysis: FX Analysis – 18AUG14 – NZD

Last week, we were expecting a correction on NZDUSD after falling for 4 consecutive weeks and our entry point were missed by a few pips and targetted profit missed by a few pips as well. This week, as we looked to daily chart, we noticed the re-test of the trendline once again (although we should not fail to notice of reversal signal on key support @ 0.8400) before fall below 0.8400 level.
At this level, we are looking/waiting for NZDUSD to hit upon 38.2% (0.8560) or 50% (0.8620) retracement. Currently it’s at 23.6% retracement and looking at 0.8530 as the next resistance.
In my opinion, I do think that NZDUSD will not last any higher than 0.8530 and a SHORT position is preferred.

 

There will be a few key speakers starting from RBA Gov Stevens on Wednesday followed by FOMC Meeting Minutes and Yellen speeech on Friday and ending with Draghi’s speech on Saturday at Jackson Hole Symposium. On top of that, EUR’s PMI, China PMI, Canada CPI etc, are all coming up.

Stay tuned with more updates.

 

Updates on AUDUSD with new chart on NZDUSD, German ZEW Economic sentiment up next – what to expect?

Here’s an update on AUDUSD after the completion and re-test of neckline.

Click here for the charting analysis: FX Analysis – 12AUG14 – AUD

NAB business confidence increased from 8 to 11 in July while the Housing price increased by 1.8% in the month of July.

In the daily charting, AUDUSD is trading within 100 & 200 SMAs, trending upwards. This view however, contrary to the mid-term view where 100SMAs crosses over 200SMAs and trending downwards together with H&S reversal, expecting to hit down to 0.9160 – 0.9200 range. Nevertheless, we would take cautious of the lack of bear force in this pair and creating divergence in price action. Taking this into consideration, the AUDUSD likely to make some correction at the 0.9180 – .9210. A long position in taking advantage of the correction movement is preferred.

 

On top of that, here’s a new chart released for NZDUSD:

Click here for the charting analysis: FX Analysis – 12AUG14 – NZD

In the daily chart, we see that NZDUSD bearish move seems stronger than expected. The kiwi has been closing lower for 4 consecutive weeks and it’s moving towards 100SMAs. Given how the kiwi has been performing for the past year, we note especially the SMAs as a good support for NZDUSD. On top of that, we see that NZDUSD broke the trendline and is currently testing @ June 3 low. However in the shorter term, we note of the similarity movement when NZDUSD tried to hit 0.8800 level. Therefore, a LONG position is preferred, on expectation of correction after 4 consecutive weeks bearish move. 

 

We will be monitoring on EURUSD upon German ZEW Sentiment releasing today. Market expectation is expecting a lower sentiment due to Russia’s retaliation on EU & US sanction on Russia. Tentatively, EURUSD still remain bearish overall and would be expecting a short correction this week.

Poor Australia’s job data, RBA monetary policy statement next, China’s trade balance to take place. what to expect?

Here’s an update of AUDUSD:

FX Analysis – 07AUG14

In the daily chart, the AUDUSD closed below 100SMA forming another bearish movement. We might see the AUDUSD moves towards 0.9200 level or lower next week.
In the intermediate trend, AUDUSD failed to break out of the H&S neckline, hitting 38.2% retracement and is currently trending back to 0.9274 level again. Tomorrow will be the final closing of the week, with RBA policy statement to be release and China’s Trade balance will be influencing the direction of AUDUSD. Today poor employment definitely gave the bears an excuse to whack AUDUSD below 0.9300 level.
In short run, next level expecting is 0.9200 on lower trade surplus – i.e. lesser import and export in China trading activity.

 

Just a quick recap of  today’s major data:

• Both BOE & ECB kept interest rate unchanged.
• CAD Ivey PMI expanded at a reading of 54.1 in July.
• CAD Building permits increased to 13.5%, far exceeding an estimate of 1.8%.
• U.S. unemployment claims dropped below 300k

EURUSD went to 1.3390 before closing down back to 1.3360 level again.

No much movement expected from GBPUSD today – remained around 1.6830 – 1.6860 level.

NZDUSD been climbing upwards from 0.8415 to 0.8487 currently.

JPY strengthened against dollar and currently trading 102.05 level. — On a side note, USDJPY has strengthened last night without much causes. The JPY strengthen against the dollar 50-60 pips causing huge movement in other pairs as well.

I have always like Ashraf’s info on these kind of fundamental news. What do you think? — http://ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/yen-crosses-shakeout

 

For now, ciao.

 

 

 

Post-RBA and ISM results — H&S neckline unbroken.

As posted earlier on, we noted a neckline @ 0.9330 and any upticks above 0.9350-0.9370 would void the H&S pattern formed.

Now, with that being said, we see in H4 a BEAR TWEEZ formed and another bear bar followed, signal the resistance level @ 0.9330. (This view is also supported by Bank of America’s view – http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/08/05/bank-of-america-says-to-sell-audusd-here/)

 

Now, looking ahead of the economic data for Australia, we would be keeping a note on the unemployment where unemployment revised from 5.8% to 6% on Thursday and China trade balance on Friday.

Meanwhile, U.S ISM Non-manufacturing PMI climbed the highest since 2005. EUR lagged while GBP holds it’s strength on great Service index at 59.1 further exceeding estimates. This would mark the 19th consecutive expansion in U.K.

The Japanese Yen weakened against dollar to near 103 level before edging back to 102.60 level at 1,54am GMT +8.

Point aside – Ghana Cedi fell another day against the dollar as the South Africa country requested bailout from the IMF, citing a 37% slump this year while the Latin country Argentina missed their payment last week to  their creditors – cited as vulture fund – and will high likely trigger the CDS clause which the vulture fund may gain more than the default of the bonds.

 

TBC again, ciao.

RBA out, Trade balance in lesser deficit than expected, what’s next for Aussie?

Here’s an update on the AUDUSD:

In the daily chart, we see AUDUSD broke down 100SMAs and possibly move towards 200SMAs. This is further supported in the H4 chart, where we see potential H&S broke out at the neckline as below. Typically we should see a re-test of neckline resistance and see that it holds at the resistance. Currently, the AUDUSD is holding at 0.9331 level and any break out above previous the long bear bar would cancel of the H&S movement. Else, we would be seeing AUDUSD move towards 0.9200 level or lower.

For charting – click on the below  link:

FX Analysis – 05AUG14

 

Trade balance posted 1.66 billion deficit as compared to an estimate of 2 billion deficit while the RBA holds interest rate @ 2.50% citing moderate growth with the slight recovery in advanced economies. At the same time, commodity prices in historical terms remain high, but some of those important to Australia have declined this year.

As quote:

” In Australia, growth was firmer around the turn of the year, but this resulted mainly from very strong increases in resource exports as new capacity came on line; smaller increases in such exports are likely in coming quarters. Moderate growth has been occurring in consumer demand. A strong expansion in housing construction is now under way. At the same time, resources sector investment spending is starting to decline significantly. Signs of improvement in investment intentions in some other sectors are emerging, but these plans remain tentative as firms wait for more evidence of improved conditions before committing to significant expansion. Public spending is scheduled to be subdued. Overall, the Bank still expects growth to be a little below trend over the year ahead.

There has been some improvement in indicators for the labour market this year, but it will probably be some time yet before unemployment declines consistently. Recent data showed an increase in inflation, with both headline and underlying measures affected by the decline in the exchange rate last year.  But growth in wages has declined noticeably and is expected to remain relatively modest over the period ahead, which should keep inflation consistent with the target even with lower levels of the exchange rate.”

More importantly is the commodities price, which would be a major influencing factor to AUD or otherway.

RBNZ decision next, U.S’s retail sales and Euro slumped, To be updated.

In less than 3hours, RBNZ will be releasing their interest rate decision where most economist are expecting RBNZ to hike rate by 25 basis points. I will drop an update on NZDUSD and AUDUSD after the decsion.

 

Meanwhile, EURUSD has hit my first TP level @ 1.3510 before rebounding back to 1.3530, I am still maintaining bearish view with cautious as I do note that there may be a chance of correction.

EURJPY has hit both TP (139.10 & 138.10) and poised to move towards 137 next. Am expecting short correction to EURJPY due to over-sold in this pair.

Everything to be updated with charts and explanation after RBNZ’s decision.

 

 

POST ECB’S DECISION MOVEMENT, NFP expected, what’s next?

Last week we see crazy volatility pre-ECB’s decision and post-ECB’s decision. Also we do noticed that the AUDUSD and NZDUSD edged higher – which I may think more because of carry trades in this pairs + safe haven in these pairs. USDCHF failed to hold above 0.9000 and hit 0.8900 back instantly within hours.

Here’s my analysis on what to expect for EURUSD & EURJPY.

EURUSD 

ECB’s Draghi unleashed the historical moves last week – negative deposits – and also other measures that is going to positioning themselves to be unleashed too, if there’s a need for it.
A quick recap – at GMT+8 7.45pm, ECB’s reduced interest rate from 0.25% down to 0.15% (higher than 0.10% expected) shocked the market. EURUSD hit 1.3730 level (one of my shorting price) before tumbling down below 1.3580 as market expecting Draghi to give more hints on more measures. That’s why, prior to Draghi speech, we would see EURUSD tries to hit down below 1.3500. However at the end of Draghi’s talk failed to satisfy the markets lures the bulls in hitting back to 1.3670 level. On Friday, NFP hits more than 200k, within what estimates has – not so much impact seen.
The most important question we need to take out of this is, has ECB done more than what they should in terms of monetary policy? Take a good look at Monday’s opening tells us of the impact of post ECB’s movement. At the end of the day, I still believe EURUSD is poised to be downtrend with tonnes of measures behind waiting to be reloaded.
All we need is just poor growth in countries in EU. 🙂

My take: (click here for analysis: FX Analysis – 09JUNE14 – EURUSD )

CCY PAIR	EURUSD
DATE	10/6/2014
POSITION VIEW	SHORT
Entry Point: (in position)	1.3650-70
TP:	1.3510(TP1) / 1.3460 (TP2)
SL:	1.37500
RRR:	1.42 – 3.125

EURJPY

Similar to EURUSD, EURJPY came under pressure on bears in the EURUSD. We seen the EURJPY trying to re-test 140 level but failed for break out higher than that, creating more bears entering this pair.
As I post this post at this moment, EURJPY TP1 target is hit and looking out to hit TP2 which is 138.10 level. Further down the road, I would be expecting EURJPY hitting 136.50 level.

My take: (click here for analysis: FX Analysis – 09JUNE14 – EURJPY )

CCY PAIR	EURJPY
DATE	10/6/2014
POSITION VIEW	SHORT
Entry Point: (in position)	140.00 – 140.20
TP:	139.10 (TP1) – 138.10 (TP2)
SL:	140.6000

 

p.s. China CPI came out higher @ 2.5% than expected (2.4%). Prior was 1.8%. Will post an update on AUDUSD and NZDUSD trades soon. Current take is AUDUSD to edge higher, NZDUSD to edge lower. 

Australia Building approval higher than expected, ADP Employment change ahead and ECB’s additional steps taken eyed, what to expect?

Here’s an updated on the economic data:

As above, AUDUSD was hit hard on Monday’s morning when ‘Buidling Approvals’  came unexpected much lower than estimate and lower than previous month 4.8%. And HSBC flash manufacturing do no leads much impact on the AUDUSD. Bad call on Long for AUDUSD. **Watch out for Australia’s GDP growth tomorrow morning** (Will update an review on the AUDUSD again tomorrow/thurday)

The Eurozone CPI came 0.5%, lower than expected of 0.7% is probably going to weigh more pressure on the ECB’s decision to fight against possibly deflation/stagnation given weak inflation result. Nevertheless, the focus will still be on the ECB’s decision.

Of course, we must not forget that tomorrow ADP Employment change which will create some impact on the US Dollar index, and affecting most pair.

Here’s an update for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF.

EURUSD –> FX Analysis – 04JUNE14 – EURUSD

GBPUSD –> FX Analysis – 04JUNE14 – GBPUSD

USDCHF –> FX Analysis – 04JUNE14 – USDCHF

Shalom.

 

HSBC Flash PMI on Tues, ECB’s decision on Thursday, NFP on Friday, what to expect?

The start of the June is gonna be real volatile with data coming all over the world. Here’s the upcoming data for the week to note.

 

 

With these data coming in the week, please find the below my technical analysis on the following pairs:

Here’s the spreadsheet of my analysis –> FX Analysis – 01JUNE14 (click to download and view)

EURUSD

Last week, I called for a SHORT in EURUSD given the market sentiment expects more easing from the ECB with hints dropped by Draghi. Also I mentioned that, we would be expecting a short correction in this pair and amended TP1 to 1.3600, and it indeed hit 1.3600 and goes all the way to 1.3685 lowest, before closing up to 1.3630 on Friday night.
Similarly, I would see 1.3670 as the KEY support/resistance level. I would take up a position in 1.3650-70 level with higher SL at 1.3750 and targetting 1.3470 which would be the end-zone for double top.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD trades near 1.7000 level in early May only to find itself meets with the bears in at that level. With that in mind, we see GBPUSD traded 200 pips down the following week and hit 1.6691 low last seen on 16 April 2014. Currently, I would be expecting more bears to come into picture. That is, IF only GBPUSD closes below the 100SMAs in daily chart, would more or less confirm the uptrend reversal. Of course, I would be cautious that this could just be a correction in the GBPUSD if by this week it does not close below 1.6700 level.
In mid-term, I would short the GBP with in mind that ECB’s decision could drag the pound down too. The most I would expect the GBPUSD to retest 1.6800 level before hitting down to 1.6600 level.

NZDUSD

China’s Manufacturing PMIs showed of 50.8 reading beating estimates 50.7 and increased from 50.4 last month. With this data, the NZDUSD and AUDUSD high likely open gap high and trade around 0.8500 – 0.8530 level and 0.9320 – 30 level respectively.
Ideally, if the NZDUSD traded around 0.8510 (which is also the double top resistance), it would be the best situation to short the NZDUSD.
With the divergence view of AUDUSD & NZDUSD is well supported by the charting of AUDNZD where daily chart broke through Feb-14 & Dec’13 high and set a tone towards 1.1100 level again.
Previously, I recommended a LONG position expecting to retest 0.8600 – 0.8620 level, only to find it hitting 0.8570 highest. Given that 0.8500 has been breached, and the closing below 0.8520 last Friday, it could indicates more bears waiting to enter the market at 0.8500 – 0.8520 level.

AUDUSD

China’s Manufacturing PMIs showed of 50.8 reading beating estimates 50.7 and increased from 50.4 last month. With this data, the NZDUSD and AUDUSD high likely open gap high and trade around 0.8500 – 0.8530 level and 0.9320 – 30 level respectively.
Unlike the NZDUS, the movement for AUDUSD would high likely follow through the formation of double bottom formed in H1 chart. On top of that, we see divergence between price action and indicators shows of potential uptrend continuation (to complete Wave5 of Elliot wave).
With the divergence view of AUDUSD & NZDUSD is well supported by the charting of AUDNZD where daily chart broke through Feb-14 & Dec’13 high and set a tone towards 1.1100 level again.

 

USDCHF

Currently still maintain baerish outlook for USDCHF. As we note that there’s reversal patterns formed in daily and H4 (especially a break-out from H1 channel trendline), I would be expecting more bears to join in the crowd.
Most importantly would be the decision on Thursday by the ECB. Currently we know that the Euro is currently being priced in with market expectation of rate cut to negative deposit move. It’s a matter of how much the ECB is gonna do when it comes on Thursday. More than expected, can expect that the Euro to drop further than 1.3600 level.
With that in mind, it can be expected that, most traders will take a short position in EURCHF & EURJPY, i.e. strengthen CHF and YEN, something that we would want to have in this pair.
Of course, not to mention the Euro has always been anti-dollar, so, we have to watch out if the SNB policy maker views on the EURCHF.