GBP retraced up to 76.4% after failing to break through 1.590 level. The GBP closed at near 1.5200.
EUR also retraced from 1.2755 (after piercing candles + MACD/RSI divergence) to close near previous low support.
Will be expecting EUR and GBP to continue downtrend for next week. Look out for weekly updates over the weekend. 🙂
The EUR fell further from 1.2865 down to 1.2750. Â The sterling pound rebounded to 1.5127 after false breaking-out of 1.5100.
AUD fell after failing to break through 1.0500, showing that bull trend seem to be on hold. At the same time, AUD has just reached the target of its inverse H&S zone and is expected for more observation before any move on it.
NZD has been on the uptrend since it hitting the 200SMAs and is expected to move up towards previous high of 0.8500 level.
USDJPY still hover the range of 93.00 to 96.00 level. The Japanese yen has formed a long wick/shadow at the previous high support (93.50 level) before hitting up again.
Meanwhile  fundamentally, Cyprus has announced capital control on its financial institute. There will be spending limit, credit limit and cash withdrawal limit before the reopening of banks in Cyprus after 2weeks of shut down. The following is the news from Reuters and Bloomberg.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-27/cyprus-capital-controls-first-in-eu-could-last-years.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/27/us-cyprus-parliament-idUSBRE92G03I20130327
I am expecting a retracement of EUR (due to divergence) and small retracement on the GBPUSD counter. Until then, am still expecting GBP and EUR to be downtrend on uncertainty and high risks seen.
Last night we saw U.S’s Home Sales, Core durable good and Consumer confidence fell more than expected.
Over the weekend, Cyprus managed to salvage its situation with the $10 billion euros (S$16.1 billion) bailout help from  the EU and IMF. EURUSD rebounded to 1.3047 before losing its strength and turned bear once again hitting near  1.2842. Effectively, the window gap seems to be covered and is therefore heading downwards.
The first target is in progress while second target miss by a few pips. Nevertheless, the EUR doesn’t seems sustainable now, especially Cyprus is showing possibility poor growth while Italy continues remained uncertain of the political power.
And in the means of getting the bailout from the EU, Cyprus has to undergo bank restructuring, where depositors in Cyprus with more than 100,000 euros will be taxed. This is definitely not attracting any money or liquidity in the bank. The EURJPY has fell more than 2.6% since the fade of euphoria of Cyprus deal.
Likewise, today U.K posted lower than expected Mortgage approval. GBPUSD fell too after hitting the 200SMAs. U.K hit target as well.
ps: this was suppose to be posted on 25th March
The past few days, Cyprus has capture the attention of the world market, speculating if the country will be the first country to exit the Eurozone ahead of the German Election and uncertain if the Russian will play their role in the bailout of Cyprus. (Of course, not to mention that Italy is still having leadership struggle)
Meanwhile, the GBP posted way better than expected in its retail sales of 2.1% prior to -0.7% m/m changes. The GBP appreciated against USD and Japanese Yen.  At the same time, we should be concerned that inflation is climbing in U.K (up from 2.7% to 2.8%)
As attached is the analysis on GBPUSD & EURUSD
p.s: Finally, back on the track to post more update. Look out for more! 🙂
Alternate Forex View 