Weekly update: Week 26.

Hi guys,

Last week the Dollar surged on higher chances of QE tapering after the FOMC meeting minutes revealed of it. We saw most (in fact all) USD pairs headed south since then and now, we still believe that it will continue to do so. Nevertheless, for the past weeks, the commodity currency pairs has been the leading movement, with the Aussie and Kiwi heading south more than any other pairs.

The loonie weakened further against the greenback after poor Retails Sales and lower inflation, and it broke through 1.0450 resistance previous high.

And given that the EURUSD and GBPUSD has been climbing up to reach previous high (each day around 100 pips movement) with dozen of spinning tops,  gave way to the BEARS and headed south, clocking  more than 100 pips, seem to be have more volatility now.

This week focus will be on these two pairs first. Will be updating the next few later on in the day.

As follows is the analysis:

EURUSD 23JUNE

GBPUSD 23JUNE

Also, as attached is the economic calender for this week. (from DailyFx): Calendar-06-23-2013

Update for the week…

Sorry everybody, been sick for the whole week.

Looks like this week there’s quite a big volatile movement in the Japanese Yen after Mr.Abe talks of the third arrow is not really pleasing anyone in the market. Even Nikkei 225 is not giving any side of positivism. The $/yen broke past 94.00 before finding buyer again at that level yesterday and this probably will be continue doing so until there’s really another side or more enforcement by the BOJ Kuroda or Abe. Nevertheless, as this pairs moves so much, it is a high risk pair to be trading. Of course, standard investment concept –> HIGH RISK = HIGH RETURN. So do catch your timing promptly at this pair.

Remember my analysis on the GBPUSD/EURUSD. The moment they broke out from 1.3300 or 1.5600, they will be heading north most likely. Currently, we see the EURUSD trading at 1.3340 and the GBPUSD hitting 1.5700.

And FINANLLY, after a “Island Reversal” on the commodities pairs – NZDUSD / AUDUSD – is taking on it tolls. The two commodities pairs (excluding loonie for now) are closing  long bull bar for two days now. If today we see another closing higher than before, we are most likely expecting a reverse in trend in these two pairs. So today closing will be important.

The Swiss France, on the other hand, went bear. Went out of my analysis and prediction though. A bit part of my mistake is to fail to see the co-relation between EURUSD and USDCHF. Upon research, their CORREL is actually at least 84%. So, a UP on the EURUSD, means a DOWN on USDCHF. So the USDCHF has been performing against the USD, or rather I should say that the USD has not been up to their performance, leading a fall in it. But on the bright side, the latest Retail Sales wasn’t that bad as expected. Retail went up 0.6% from 0.1%.

Weekly updates: Week 24 part 2

Sorry for the late update on the NZDUSD, USDCAD.

Please find the attached the file for NZDUSD, USDCAD as of 9JUNE.

NZDUSD 9JUNE

USDCAD 9JUNE

 

So far here’s the update on previous analysis:

AUDUSD position has been filled @ 0.9410, 0.9380 missed by 1-2pips. TP target: 0.9510, followed by 0.9610

EURUSD position 1.3160 missed target by 20pips and since then the target was not seen anymore. Therefore, we have to cancel that position.

The same goes for GBPUSD, buy limit @ 1.5460, missed target by 30-40pips, and currently trading at 1.5580. Cancel position

USDCAD position filled @ 1.0210 short, TP 1.0150 and 1.0050. SL target is 1.0230.

NZDUSD short position was filled @ 0.7910, TP target @ 0.7780.

NZDUSD long position initially missed target by 30pips @ 0.7800 where low is 0.7828. – position to be cancelled.

Good enough NFP? China data not good enough?

Last Friday, a lot of trader are expecting not so good news for the U.S NFP news. Similarly, I had that perception that the U.s wasn’t doing that well, not to mention that the NFP should be negative too. The EURUSD, GBPUSD traded higher, breaking 1.33 and 1.56 respectively. However the Unemployment rate edged up by 0.1% (not surprisingly, given that there are more Unemployment Claim recently) and NFP created 175K jobs against 165K expected.

And over the weekend, China Trade Balance posted slightly lower than expected, CPI & PPI is lower than expected, Fixed Asset Investment & Industrial Production showed 20.4% against 20.6% expected and 9.2% against 9.3% respectively.

Monday is Australia and China’s Bank Holiday.

Nevertheless, here are the analysis on the EURUSD, GBPUSD & AUDUSD.

AUDUSD 9JUNE

EURUSD 9JUNE

GBPUSD 9JUNE

Moving forward, this week more volatility is expected in the Japanese Yen pairs, the EURO, and Aussie & Kiwi at the start of the week. Moving into the mid-week, the NZD is expected more movement before the RBNZ rate decision.  Thursday we want to look out for U.S Retail Sales to have an indication of consumer’s confidence in the economy.  Also we are seeing if the Aussie creating more jobs and if Unemployment rate is higher than before. Lastly, we want to see U.S Consumer Sentiment at the end of the week/day before closing off. On the 14th, Abe is expected to give more direction with his “Third Arrow of the Abenomics” That will bring more firepower to the USDJPY pairs.

Happy trading ahead! 🙂

GBP up, EUR down, U.S Non-farm employment next.

U.K posted more positive Service PMI than expected in the month of May, 54.9 against 53.1 expected and 52.9 previously.

On the other hand, we see the eurobloc retail sales falling by -0.5% against -0.2% previously (and expected) causing the EURUSD to fall as well.

Next up, is the U.S non-farm employment change, which would tell if there’s much more job creation than expected last month.

Here’s an update on the NZDUSD, USDCHF & USDCAD

Starting of with the USDCHF:

.

Commentary:
As noted, I still view the USDCHF as bullish in general. On main reason behind the bullishness is my take/view on the EURUSD that it’s bearish soon, and on also on the fact that in H1, we are seeing minor divergence in price action against MACD/RSI. Therefore, my take is to LONG if there’s a breakout from 0.9520 (i.e. LONG @ 0.9540), SL @ 0.9480 while TP1 @ 0.9600, TP2@ 0.9720.

USDCAD:

Commentary:
On the view of the USDCAD, we are taking note if the USDCAD will resist the channel trendline and head to test 1.0290 support level. Should there be any breakout, from 1.0290 level, next level is 1.0215 support. Therefore, my take is a SHORT @ 1.0350 with a SL @ 1.0380, TP 1 @ 1.0290, & TP2 @ 1.0230.

NZDUSD:

Commentary:
Took up a SHORT position @ 0.8045, after a rising star pattern formed at H1 chart. Therefore, Short @ 0.8045, TP @ 0.7960, SL @ 0.8080. Will be expecting the NZDUSD to retest previous low first and monitor further more.

 

 

Australia posted stagnant growth of 0.6% against 0.6% previous quarter

Week 23, MID-WEEK updates.

As follows are the mid-week updates on the EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD.

EURUSD:

Commentary :
As there is still room for the EURUSD to head up to 1.3100 level, will be expecting placing  a SHORT at the 1.3140 level with a SL above 1.3200 and TP @ 1.2980. RRR will be 2.3.

GBPUSD:

Commentary :
Will be expecting the GBPUSD to head up re-test previous high level and at the same time, will be looking out for divergence in price action against MACD/RSI. Therefore, will be expecting a SHORT for this pair @ 1.5380, TP1 @ 1.5260, TP2 @ 1.5180 with a SL above 1.5430.

AUDUSD:

Commentary :
The AUDUSD posted 0.6% GBP growth against prior quarter 0.6%, falling short of 0.2% of expectation of 0.8%. My take in the AUDUSD today will be a SHORT at 0.9680, with a SL @ 0.9720, TP @ 0.9550.

On the side note, today major economic data we want to take note is the

U.K Service PMI – 52.9 previous month against 53.1 expectation.
Spain & Italy Service PMI – with both expectation to be higher than previous month
Eurzone Retail Sales – Expectation of -0.2% against -0.1% previous month
U.S. ADP Non-farm employment change – where expectation is 171K against 119K previous month (This is will be a huge moving factor the USD based CCY.
Canada’s Building Permit – where expectation is -2.6% against 8.6% previous month
U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI – Expectation is 53.4 against 53.1 previous month
Lastly, Factory Orders m/m – Expectation of 1.6% against -4.9% previously.

Of all this, we would also like to take note that the U.S. Beige Book will be released at 2AM (GMT+8) later tonight.

That’s all for now. We will be reviewing the USDJPY soon tonight. Especially when Abe revealed the Third Arrow of his Abenomics, and we try to see the impact of that on the USDJPY. Tentatively, people are deeming it to be not as powerful as expected, and we are seeing the USDJPY falling below 100 again upon hitting previous low support level (100.45).

Updates in week 23 analysis

Hello everyone,

A few days ago, I have made analysis on most of the USD based major pairs (EUR, GBP, CHF, CAD, NZD, AUD). And true enough, we are seeing the USD weaken after a poor ISM Manufacturing data of 49.0 only against 50.6 expectations and 50.7 in previous month. The US has not seen pessimism since Dec’12 2012, and probably the first decline below 50.0 this year so far.

Of course, the bulls rider, rides on this opportunity and most of my prediction came to past. Let’s try to recap on my stand:

EURUSD:
My take was to LONG; it hits 1.2970, TP 1 @ 1.3050, TP 2 @ 1.3100. Both TP hit.
Subsequently, next move is to SHORT the EURUSD @ 1.3140, TP 1.2980, 1.2740. (Price was not achieved, EURHSD highest was 1.3106 on Monday)

No. of pips: + 210 pips

GBPUSD: 
Initial take was LONG @ 1.5170, TP 1 @ 1.5280, TP 2 @ 1.5340. SL @ 1.5125 & 1.5070. However, the opening on Monday was 1.5190 and went up without looking back. Therefore, TP target would have been hit, but position unfulfilled.
Then, next move is to SHORT @ 1.5300, TP 1 @ 1.5170, TP2 @ 1.5030, SL @ 1.5340, 1.5420. Position filled, but hit SL1 @ 1.5340.

No. of pips: -40pips

AUDUSD
Both take is to LONG @ 0.9560 @ 0.09520 with a SL @ 0.9470. TP 1: 0.9690, TP2: 0.978, TP 3: 0.9880. The AUDUSD hits 0.9790 highest, hitting TP 1 & 2 range, but not TP3 after positive China Manufacturing PMI, Positive Retail Sales m/m, higher Company profit q/q etc.. most importantly is the poor U.S ISM Manufacturing that creates this opportunity. The sad part is, the positive news of the China Manufacturing PMI has caused gap in Monday’s opening and therefore failed to fill in position.

No. of pips: 0pips

NZDUSD
My take is to LONG @ 0.7930 (failed to hit target by 10pips), TP @ 0.8040 (HIT) and TP 2 @ 0.8130 (Missed by 13 pips).
Second take is to SHORT @ 0.8000 (HIT), TP @ 0.7920 & 0.7820, SL @ 0.8030 (Hit SL) & @ 0.8080 (HIT SL again too)

No. of pips: -110 pips

USDCHF
Both take is to LONG @ 0.9600 (last week position) & LONG @ 0.9540 (this week position) – Both HIT, TP 1 @ 0.9730 (HIT last week), TP2 @ 0.9830 (unfilled, missed by 40pips), SL for both is 0.9470 (both hit – on the poor U.S. ISM Manufacturing results)

No. of pips: -70pips

USDCAD
Both take is to SHORT @ 1.0400 (HIT) & 1.0445 (unfilled), TP 1 @ 1.0300 (HIT) & 1.0230 (unfilled; missed by 30pips), SL @ 1.0470 (NOT hit)

No. of pips: + 100pips

Total gain: 100pips. (if only AUDUSD and NZDUSD order was filled by that 10-20pips difference) Monday earnings would be more than this result.

Nevertheless, we want to move on see for more potential result. Please stay tune tomorrow for mid-week updates. Cheers 🙂

Another weekly updates!

Please find the following attached files the updates for NZDUSD, USDCAD & USDCHF.

NZDUSD 2JUNE, USDCAD 2JUNE, USDCHF 2JUNE

Do note that there won’t be much data on the kiwi this week, as well as for the franc (except for CPI and Foreign Reserve Balance on Thursday & Friday respectively)

THE LOONIE

On Tuesday, there will be information on Canada’s Trade Balance, followed by Building Permits m/m on Wednesday night. Then on Thursday, we will be looking out for the Ivey PMI where there is expectation for higher expansion, before closing off on Friday the employment change and unemployment rate together with the U.S employment data.

 

Weekly updates: Week 23

Hello everybody,

Please find the updates for the AUDUSD, EURUSD & GBPUSD pair as follow. Will be updating the USDCHF, USDCAD & NZDUSD pair tonight as I work them out. Also, I will be probably try to add in USDJPY analysis too if time permit. 🙂

AUDUSD 2JUNE

EURUSD 2JUNE

GBPUSD 2JUNE

As usual, this week economic calendar are as follow: Calendar-02-06-2013 (Source from DailyFx.com)

As you can see, this week is the start o the week. We will be taking note of AUDUSD, EURUSD & GBPUSD (and USDJPY) more than any other pairs due the reasons of the number of news coming out this week.

AUDUSD
Firstly, on Saturday morning, China released it’s official Manufacturing PMI data showing an improvement of 50.8 against 49.9 expected and 50.6 prior month. This is definitely a boost factor the AUDUSD, which we are likely to see a surge in buyer of the AUDUSD pair. On 23 May, HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI showed a contraction of 49.6, while the official Manufacturing PMI shows expansion of 50.8. My guess is, the AUDUSD hit below 0.9600 level on Friday closing is because of the fear of Flash PMI tells of some story to some traders. Nevertheless, this fundamental news is bringing a strong case on the AUDUSD analysis.
On Monday morning, we are looking towards Australia’s Retail Sales m/m as well as Company Operating Profits q/q to give a better sense of direction of the how well is the economy is doing.  Also HBSC Final Manufacturing data. Of course, the RBA decision on the Cash Rate on Tuesday morning (which i doubt they will cut given last month they cut to 2.75%). On Wednesday, the GDP of Australia followed by Thursday’s Trade Balance and finally Saturday morning we are looking to China’s Trade Balance, to understand if there’s improvement on the import and export from China demand.

EURUSD
Monday morning, we are looking to the official  Spanish Manufacturing PMI as well as Italy’s Manufacturing PMI. On Tuesday, we are seeing Spain’s unemployment change, where economist expecting more unemployment change in Spain. Then followed by Wednesday where we are looking to Spain & Italy’s Services PMI and the Eurozone’s Retail Sales.
Then comes Thursday, where we are looking the 10-year bond auction from Spain & France (particularly more interested in Spain, to know if borrowing cost is increasing [i.e. higher risk]). Also German’s Factory Order. Most importantly the ECB’s interest rate which was cut to 0.50% last month, and the comment from the ECB’s President, Mr. Mario Draghi.
Last but not least, German’s Industrial Production and Trade Balance released on Friday.

GBPUSD
On Monday, U.K. Manufacturing PMI would have certain impact on the GBPUSD, given that economist are expecting an expansion of 50.3 compared to contraction previous month of 49.8. Then on Tuesday (could be released no later than 7th June), we can have a better understanding of the U.K Housing Price Index (HPI) as well as Construction PMI.
On Wednesday, we would then see U.K Service’s PMI and as the Euro, the BOE will be highlighting if any rate cute or increment of their Quantitative Easing purchase. Most importantly, we want to note the MPC Rate Statement to look out for any clues of their current QE movement or if inflation/economy is of any concern.
Then we will close off on Friday with U.K’s consumer inflation expectation and Trade Balance.

Most importantly, this week we are seeing and expecting more U.S. news to impact on the movement of the currency given that most major pairs analysis are done against the USD. This week data could further hint to everyone if the Fed are going to taper their QE program, something a pro-dollar person would love it.

Happy trading! 🙂 Look out for more analysis later tonight or tomorrow morning.