Updates on AUDUSD with new chart on NZDUSD, German ZEW Economic sentiment up next – what to expect?

Here’s an update on AUDUSD after the completion and re-test of neckline.

Click here for the charting analysis: FX Analysis – 12AUG14 – AUD

NAB business confidence increased from 8 to 11 in July while the Housing price increased by 1.8% in the month of July.

In the daily charting, AUDUSD is trading within 100 & 200 SMAs, trending upwards. This view however, contrary to the mid-term view where 100SMAs crosses over 200SMAs and trending downwards together with H&S reversal, expecting to hit down to 0.9160 – 0.9200 range. Nevertheless, we would take cautious of the lack of bear force in this pair and creating divergence in price action. Taking this into consideration, the AUDUSD likely to make some correction at the 0.9180 – .9210. A long position in taking advantage of the correction movement is preferred.

 

On top of that, here’s a new chart released for NZDUSD:

Click here for the charting analysis: FX Analysis – 12AUG14 – NZD

In the daily chart, we see that NZDUSD bearish move seems stronger than expected. The kiwi has been closing lower for 4 consecutive weeks and it’s moving towards 100SMAs. Given how the kiwi has been performing for the past year, we note especially the SMAs as a good support for NZDUSD. On top of that, we see that NZDUSD broke the trendline and is currently testing @ June 3 low. However in the shorter term, we note of the similarity movement when NZDUSD tried to hit 0.8800 level. Therefore, a LONG position is preferred, on expectation of correction after 4 consecutive weeks bearish move. 

 

We will be monitoring on EURUSD upon German ZEW Sentiment releasing today. Market expectation is expecting a lower sentiment due to Russia’s retaliation on EU & US sanction on Russia. Tentatively, EURUSD still remain bearish overall and would be expecting a short correction this week.

Poor Australia’s job data, RBA monetary policy statement next, China’s trade balance to take place. what to expect?

Here’s an update of AUDUSD:

FX Analysis – 07AUG14

In the daily chart, the AUDUSD closed below 100SMA forming another bearish movement. We might see the AUDUSD moves towards 0.9200 level or lower next week.
In the intermediate trend, AUDUSD failed to break out of the H&S neckline, hitting 38.2% retracement and is currently trending back to 0.9274 level again. Tomorrow will be the final closing of the week, with RBA policy statement to be release and China’s Trade balance will be influencing the direction of AUDUSD. Today poor employment definitely gave the bears an excuse to whack AUDUSD below 0.9300 level.
In short run, next level expecting is 0.9200 on lower trade surplus – i.e. lesser import and export in China trading activity.

 

Just a quick recap of  today’s major data:

• Both BOE & ECB kept interest rate unchanged.
• CAD Ivey PMI expanded at a reading of 54.1 in July.
• CAD Building permits increased to 13.5%, far exceeding an estimate of 1.8%.
• U.S. unemployment claims dropped below 300k

EURUSD went to 1.3390 before closing down back to 1.3360 level again.

No much movement expected from GBPUSD today – remained around 1.6830 – 1.6860 level.

NZDUSD been climbing upwards from 0.8415 to 0.8487 currently.

JPY strengthened against dollar and currently trading 102.05 level. — On a side note, USDJPY has strengthened last night without much causes. The JPY strengthen against the dollar 50-60 pips causing huge movement in other pairs as well.

I have always like Ashraf’s info on these kind of fundamental news. What do you think? — http://ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/yen-crosses-shakeout

 

For now, ciao.

 

 

 

Post-RBA and ISM results — H&S neckline unbroken.

As posted earlier on, we noted a neckline @ 0.9330 and any upticks above 0.9350-0.9370 would void the H&S pattern formed.

Now, with that being said, we see in H4 a BEAR TWEEZ formed and another bear bar followed, signal the resistance level @ 0.9330. (This view is also supported by Bank of America’s view – http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/08/05/bank-of-america-says-to-sell-audusd-here/)

 

Now, looking ahead of the economic data for Australia, we would be keeping a note on the unemployment where unemployment revised from 5.8% to 6% on Thursday and China trade balance on Friday.

Meanwhile, U.S ISM Non-manufacturing PMI climbed the highest since 2005. EUR lagged while GBP holds it’s strength on great Service index at 59.1 further exceeding estimates. This would mark the 19th consecutive expansion in U.K.

The Japanese Yen weakened against dollar to near 103 level before edging back to 102.60 level at 1,54am GMT +8.

Point aside – Ghana Cedi fell another day against the dollar as the South Africa country requested bailout from the IMF, citing a 37% slump this year while the Latin country Argentina missed their payment last week to  their creditors – cited as vulture fund – and will high likely trigger the CDS clause which the vulture fund may gain more than the default of the bonds.

 

TBC again, ciao.

RBA out, Trade balance in lesser deficit than expected, what’s next for Aussie?

Here’s an update on the AUDUSD:

In the daily chart, we see AUDUSD broke down 100SMAs and possibly move towards 200SMAs. This is further supported in the H4 chart, where we see potential H&S broke out at the neckline as below. Typically we should see a re-test of neckline resistance and see that it holds at the resistance. Currently, the AUDUSD is holding at 0.9331 level and any break out above previous the long bear bar would cancel of the H&S movement. Else, we would be seeing AUDUSD move towards 0.9200 level or lower.

For charting – click on the below  link:

FX Analysis – 05AUG14

 

Trade balance posted 1.66 billion deficit as compared to an estimate of 2 billion deficit while the RBA holds interest rate @ 2.50% citing moderate growth with the slight recovery in advanced economies. At the same time, commodity prices in historical terms remain high, but some of those important to Australia have declined this year.

As quote:

” In Australia, growth was firmer around the turn of the year, but this resulted mainly from very strong increases in resource exports as new capacity came on line; smaller increases in such exports are likely in coming quarters. Moderate growth has been occurring in consumer demand. A strong expansion in housing construction is now under way. At the same time, resources sector investment spending is starting to decline significantly. Signs of improvement in investment intentions in some other sectors are emerging, but these plans remain tentative as firms wait for more evidence of improved conditions before committing to significant expansion. Public spending is scheduled to be subdued. Overall, the Bank still expects growth to be a little below trend over the year ahead.

There has been some improvement in indicators for the labour market this year, but it will probably be some time yet before unemployment declines consistently. Recent data showed an increase in inflation, with both headline and underlying measures affected by the decline in the exchange rate last year.  But growth in wages has declined noticeably and is expected to remain relatively modest over the period ahead, which should keep inflation consistent with the target even with lower levels of the exchange rate.”

More importantly is the commodities price, which would be a major influencing factor to AUD or otherway.

RBNZ decision next, U.S’s retail sales and Euro slumped, To be updated.

In less than 3hours, RBNZ will be releasing their interest rate decision where most economist are expecting RBNZ to hike rate by 25 basis points. I will drop an update on NZDUSD and AUDUSD after the decsion.

 

Meanwhile, EURUSD has hit my first TP level @ 1.3510 before rebounding back to 1.3530, I am still maintaining bearish view with cautious as I do note that there may be a chance of correction.

EURJPY has hit both TP (139.10 & 138.10) and poised to move towards 137 next. Am expecting short correction to EURJPY due to over-sold in this pair.

Everything to be updated with charts and explanation after RBNZ’s decision.

 

 

HSBC Flash PMI on Tues, ECB’s decision on Thursday, NFP on Friday, what to expect?

The start of the June is gonna be real volatile with data coming all over the world. Here’s the upcoming data for the week to note.

 

 

With these data coming in the week, please find the below my technical analysis on the following pairs:

Here’s the spreadsheet of my analysis –> FX Analysis – 01JUNE14 (click to download and view)

EURUSD

Last week, I called for a SHORT in EURUSD given the market sentiment expects more easing from the ECB with hints dropped by Draghi. Also I mentioned that, we would be expecting a short correction in this pair and amended TP1 to 1.3600, and it indeed hit 1.3600 and goes all the way to 1.3685 lowest, before closing up to 1.3630 on Friday night.
Similarly, I would see 1.3670 as the KEY support/resistance level. I would take up a position in 1.3650-70 level with higher SL at 1.3750 and targetting 1.3470 which would be the end-zone for double top.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD trades near 1.7000 level in early May only to find itself meets with the bears in at that level. With that in mind, we see GBPUSD traded 200 pips down the following week and hit 1.6691 low last seen on 16 April 2014. Currently, I would be expecting more bears to come into picture. That is, IF only GBPUSD closes below the 100SMAs in daily chart, would more or less confirm the uptrend reversal. Of course, I would be cautious that this could just be a correction in the GBPUSD if by this week it does not close below 1.6700 level.
In mid-term, I would short the GBP with in mind that ECB’s decision could drag the pound down too. The most I would expect the GBPUSD to retest 1.6800 level before hitting down to 1.6600 level.

NZDUSD

China’s Manufacturing PMIs showed of 50.8 reading beating estimates 50.7 and increased from 50.4 last month. With this data, the NZDUSD and AUDUSD high likely open gap high and trade around 0.8500 – 0.8530 level and 0.9320 – 30 level respectively.
Ideally, if the NZDUSD traded around 0.8510 (which is also the double top resistance), it would be the best situation to short the NZDUSD.
With the divergence view of AUDUSD & NZDUSD is well supported by the charting of AUDNZD where daily chart broke through Feb-14 & Dec’13 high and set a tone towards 1.1100 level again.
Previously, I recommended a LONG position expecting to retest 0.8600 – 0.8620 level, only to find it hitting 0.8570 highest. Given that 0.8500 has been breached, and the closing below 0.8520 last Friday, it could indicates more bears waiting to enter the market at 0.8500 – 0.8520 level.

AUDUSD

China’s Manufacturing PMIs showed of 50.8 reading beating estimates 50.7 and increased from 50.4 last month. With this data, the NZDUSD and AUDUSD high likely open gap high and trade around 0.8500 – 0.8530 level and 0.9320 – 30 level respectively.
Unlike the NZDUS, the movement for AUDUSD would high likely follow through the formation of double bottom formed in H1 chart. On top of that, we see divergence between price action and indicators shows of potential uptrend continuation (to complete Wave5 of Elliot wave).
With the divergence view of AUDUSD & NZDUSD is well supported by the charting of AUDNZD where daily chart broke through Feb-14 & Dec’13 high and set a tone towards 1.1100 level again.

 

USDCHF

Currently still maintain baerish outlook for USDCHF. As we note that there’s reversal patterns formed in daily and H4 (especially a break-out from H1 channel trendline), I would be expecting more bears to join in the crowd.
Most importantly would be the decision on Thursday by the ECB. Currently we know that the Euro is currently being priced in with market expectation of rate cut to negative deposit move. It’s a matter of how much the ECB is gonna do when it comes on Thursday. More than expected, can expect that the Euro to drop further than 1.3600 level.
With that in mind, it can be expected that, most traders will take a short position in EURCHF & EURJPY, i.e. strengthen CHF and YEN, something that we would want to have in this pair.
Of course, not to mention the Euro has always been anti-dollar, so, we have to watch out if the SNB policy maker views on the EURCHF.

Good enough NFP? China data not good enough?

Last Friday, a lot of trader are expecting not so good news for the U.S NFP news. Similarly, I had that perception that the U.s wasn’t doing that well, not to mention that the NFP should be negative too. The EURUSD, GBPUSD traded higher, breaking 1.33 and 1.56 respectively. However the Unemployment rate edged up by 0.1% (not surprisingly, given that there are more Unemployment Claim recently) and NFP created 175K jobs against 165K expected.

And over the weekend, China Trade Balance posted slightly lower than expected, CPI & PPI is lower than expected, Fixed Asset Investment & Industrial Production showed 20.4% against 20.6% expected and 9.2% against 9.3% respectively.

Monday is Australia and China’s Bank Holiday.

Nevertheless, here are the analysis on the EURUSD, GBPUSD & AUDUSD.

AUDUSD 9JUNE

EURUSD 9JUNE

GBPUSD 9JUNE

Moving forward, this week more volatility is expected in the Japanese Yen pairs, the EURO, and Aussie & Kiwi at the start of the week. Moving into the mid-week, the NZD is expected more movement before the RBNZ rate decision.  Thursday we want to look out for U.S Retail Sales to have an indication of consumer’s confidence in the economy.  Also we are seeing if the Aussie creating more jobs and if Unemployment rate is higher than before. Lastly, we want to see U.S Consumer Sentiment at the end of the week/day before closing off. On the 14th, Abe is expected to give more direction with his “Third Arrow of the Abenomics” That will bring more firepower to the USDJPY pairs.

Happy trading ahead! 🙂

Australia posted stagnant growth of 0.6% against 0.6% previous quarter

Week 23, MID-WEEK updates.

As follows are the mid-week updates on the EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD.

EURUSD:

Commentary :
As there is still room for the EURUSD to head up to 1.3100 level, will be expecting placing  a SHORT at the 1.3140 level with a SL above 1.3200 and TP @ 1.2980. RRR will be 2.3.

GBPUSD:

Commentary :
Will be expecting the GBPUSD to head up re-test previous high level and at the same time, will be looking out for divergence in price action against MACD/RSI. Therefore, will be expecting a SHORT for this pair @ 1.5380, TP1 @ 1.5260, TP2 @ 1.5180 with a SL above 1.5430.

AUDUSD:

Commentary :
The AUDUSD posted 0.6% GBP growth against prior quarter 0.6%, falling short of 0.2% of expectation of 0.8%. My take in the AUDUSD today will be a SHORT at 0.9680, with a SL @ 0.9720, TP @ 0.9550.

On the side note, today major economic data we want to take note is the

U.K Service PMI – 52.9 previous month against 53.1 expectation.
Spain & Italy Service PMI – with both expectation to be higher than previous month
Eurzone Retail Sales – Expectation of -0.2% against -0.1% previous month
U.S. ADP Non-farm employment change – where expectation is 171K against 119K previous month (This is will be a huge moving factor the USD based CCY.
Canada’s Building Permit – where expectation is -2.6% against 8.6% previous month
U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI – Expectation is 53.4 against 53.1 previous month
Lastly, Factory Orders m/m – Expectation of 1.6% against -4.9% previously.

Of all this, we would also like to take note that the U.S. Beige Book will be released at 2AM (GMT+8) later tonight.

That’s all for now. We will be reviewing the USDJPY soon tonight. Especially when Abe revealed the Third Arrow of his Abenomics, and we try to see the impact of that on the USDJPY. Tentatively, people are deeming it to be not as powerful as expected, and we are seeing the USDJPY falling below 100 again upon hitting previous low support level (100.45).

Updates in week 23 analysis

Hello everyone,

A few days ago, I have made analysis on most of the USD based major pairs (EUR, GBP, CHF, CAD, NZD, AUD). And true enough, we are seeing the USD weaken after a poor ISM Manufacturing data of 49.0 only against 50.6 expectations and 50.7 in previous month. The US has not seen pessimism since Dec’12 2012, and probably the first decline below 50.0 this year so far.

Of course, the bulls rider, rides on this opportunity and most of my prediction came to past. Let’s try to recap on my stand:

EURUSD:
My take was to LONG; it hits 1.2970, TP 1 @ 1.3050, TP 2 @ 1.3100. Both TP hit.
Subsequently, next move is to SHORT the EURUSD @ 1.3140, TP 1.2980, 1.2740. (Price was not achieved, EURHSD highest was 1.3106 on Monday)

No. of pips: + 210 pips

GBPUSD: 
Initial take was LONG @ 1.5170, TP 1 @ 1.5280, TP 2 @ 1.5340. SL @ 1.5125 & 1.5070. However, the opening on Monday was 1.5190 and went up without looking back. Therefore, TP target would have been hit, but position unfulfilled.
Then, next move is to SHORT @ 1.5300, TP 1 @ 1.5170, TP2 @ 1.5030, SL @ 1.5340, 1.5420. Position filled, but hit SL1 @ 1.5340.

No. of pips: -40pips

AUDUSD
Both take is to LONG @ 0.9560 @ 0.09520 with a SL @ 0.9470. TP 1: 0.9690, TP2: 0.978, TP 3: 0.9880. The AUDUSD hits 0.9790 highest, hitting TP 1 & 2 range, but not TP3 after positive China Manufacturing PMI, Positive Retail Sales m/m, higher Company profit q/q etc.. most importantly is the poor U.S ISM Manufacturing that creates this opportunity. The sad part is, the positive news of the China Manufacturing PMI has caused gap in Monday’s opening and therefore failed to fill in position.

No. of pips: 0pips

NZDUSD
My take is to LONG @ 0.7930 (failed to hit target by 10pips), TP @ 0.8040 (HIT) and TP 2 @ 0.8130 (Missed by 13 pips).
Second take is to SHORT @ 0.8000 (HIT), TP @ 0.7920 & 0.7820, SL @ 0.8030 (Hit SL) & @ 0.8080 (HIT SL again too)

No. of pips: -110 pips

USDCHF
Both take is to LONG @ 0.9600 (last week position) & LONG @ 0.9540 (this week position) – Both HIT, TP 1 @ 0.9730 (HIT last week), TP2 @ 0.9830 (unfilled, missed by 40pips), SL for both is 0.9470 (both hit – on the poor U.S. ISM Manufacturing results)

No. of pips: -70pips

USDCAD
Both take is to SHORT @ 1.0400 (HIT) & 1.0445 (unfilled), TP 1 @ 1.0300 (HIT) & 1.0230 (unfilled; missed by 30pips), SL @ 1.0470 (NOT hit)

No. of pips: + 100pips

Total gain: 100pips. (if only AUDUSD and NZDUSD order was filled by that 10-20pips difference) Monday earnings would be more than this result.

Nevertheless, we want to move on see for more potential result. Please stay tune tomorrow for mid-week updates. Cheers 🙂

Weekly updates: Week 23

Hello everybody,

Please find the updates for the AUDUSD, EURUSD & GBPUSD pair as follow. Will be updating the USDCHF, USDCAD & NZDUSD pair tonight as I work them out. Also, I will be probably try to add in USDJPY analysis too if time permit. 🙂

AUDUSD 2JUNE

EURUSD 2JUNE

GBPUSD 2JUNE

As usual, this week economic calendar are as follow: Calendar-02-06-2013 (Source from DailyFx.com)

As you can see, this week is the start o the week. We will be taking note of AUDUSD, EURUSD & GBPUSD (and USDJPY) more than any other pairs due the reasons of the number of news coming out this week.

AUDUSD
Firstly, on Saturday morning, China released it’s official Manufacturing PMI data showing an improvement of 50.8 against 49.9 expected and 50.6 prior month. This is definitely a boost factor the AUDUSD, which we are likely to see a surge in buyer of the AUDUSD pair. On 23 May, HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI showed a contraction of 49.6, while the official Manufacturing PMI shows expansion of 50.8. My guess is, the AUDUSD hit below 0.9600 level on Friday closing is because of the fear of Flash PMI tells of some story to some traders. Nevertheless, this fundamental news is bringing a strong case on the AUDUSD analysis.
On Monday morning, we are looking towards Australia’s Retail Sales m/m as well as Company Operating Profits q/q to give a better sense of direction of the how well is the economy is doing.  Also HBSC Final Manufacturing data. Of course, the RBA decision on the Cash Rate on Tuesday morning (which i doubt they will cut given last month they cut to 2.75%). On Wednesday, the GDP of Australia followed by Thursday’s Trade Balance and finally Saturday morning we are looking to China’s Trade Balance, to understand if there’s improvement on the import and export from China demand.

EURUSD
Monday morning, we are looking to the official  Spanish Manufacturing PMI as well as Italy’s Manufacturing PMI. On Tuesday, we are seeing Spain’s unemployment change, where economist expecting more unemployment change in Spain. Then followed by Wednesday where we are looking to Spain & Italy’s Services PMI and the Eurozone’s Retail Sales.
Then comes Thursday, where we are looking the 10-year bond auction from Spain & France (particularly more interested in Spain, to know if borrowing cost is increasing [i.e. higher risk]). Also German’s Factory Order. Most importantly the ECB’s interest rate which was cut to 0.50% last month, and the comment from the ECB’s President, Mr. Mario Draghi.
Last but not least, German’s Industrial Production and Trade Balance released on Friday.

GBPUSD
On Monday, U.K. Manufacturing PMI would have certain impact on the GBPUSD, given that economist are expecting an expansion of 50.3 compared to contraction previous month of 49.8. Then on Tuesday (could be released no later than 7th June), we can have a better understanding of the U.K Housing Price Index (HPI) as well as Construction PMI.
On Wednesday, we would then see U.K Service’s PMI and as the Euro, the BOE will be highlighting if any rate cute or increment of their Quantitative Easing purchase. Most importantly, we want to note the MPC Rate Statement to look out for any clues of their current QE movement or if inflation/economy is of any concern.
Then we will close off on Friday with U.K’s consumer inflation expectation and Trade Balance.

Most importantly, this week we are seeing and expecting more U.S. news to impact on the movement of the currency given that most major pairs analysis are done against the USD. This week data could further hint to everyone if the Fed are going to taper their QE program, something a pro-dollar person would love it.

Happy trading! 🙂 Look out for more analysis later tonight or tomorrow morning.