US not being supportive,looks like QE tapering not so close yet.

As follows are the updates for the past two days:

We see that the AUDUSD generally has been weaker than I have expected. The pair broke low 40pips more than I have expected, hitting 0.9530 low, a low not seen a year ago. Re-entered AUDUSD @ 0.9632 & 0.9614. TP @ 0.9665/70. (As the AUDUSD is facing strong resistance at 0.9700 and has failed to breakthrough it)

USDCAD failed to break past 1.0420 and hit 1.0300 low. (It’s a pity that I was hit stop loss at 1.0420), re-entered at 1.0360 after confirmation of dark cloud formed at the peak. Target TP level is 1.0270 though.

USDCHF long price at 0.9600 & 0.9540 was in place. Stop loss at 0.9480, while TP remains at 0.9800 & 0.9900.

EURUSD both was stopped out at 1.03030 level.

GBPUSD shorted at 1.5150 and hit TP at 1.5030. Thankfully, it hit TP before it goes all the way to 1.5200 and above.

USDJPY was very volatile. Strong still seen at 100.50 – 100.80 range, while the peak it could go for now is 102 range to 103.50 range. Entered this pair at 100.78, going LONG.

AUDJPY new orders was made. Went long on this pair at 97.42 with a SL & TP at 96.80 & 98.42 respectively.

EURGBP, shorted at 0.8582 with a SL @ 0.8630, while TP is at 0.8530. (Facing strong resistance @ 0.8600)

NZDUSD, LONG @ 0.8020 with a target of 0.8120, SL @ 0.7980.

As follows, I had two stopped out (USDCAD, EURUSD) while I have also two TP (GBPUSD, AUDUSD). Also currently in position is also AUDJPY, USDJPY, NZDUSD & USDCHF. 🙂

Brief summary of data released for the past two days:

BOC left interest-rate at 1% unchanged, BOC’s Governor Mark Carney has made his last decision and awaits for next BOC’s governor to show more rooms of improvement.

UK’s CBI Realized Sales was -11 against 4 expected and -1 prior, poorer performance from the UK side.
Nationwide HPI m/m was 0.4% against 0.5% expected.

Australia’s Building Approval m/m was 9.1% against 4.1% expected and -5.5% prior month. This shows of more potential construction domestically. However, CAPEX fell from -2.1% prior quarter to -4.7% this quarter. Expectation was 0.7%.

German’s unemployment change was higher than expected and Prelim CPI was better than expected.
Italy’s 10-bond yield bid higher by 20bp, from 3.94% to 4.14%.

U.S’s Prelim GDP q/q was 0.1% off the expectation mark while Unemployment claims was higher by 10k compared to previous month. What makes the dollar weaken more was poorer than expected Pending Home Sales m/m, with 0.3% only against 1.3% expectation and 1.5% prior month.

Cyprus remains uncertain, GBP escape focus.

The past few days, Cyprus has capture the attention of the world market, speculating if the country will be the first country to exit the Eurozone ahead of the German Election and uncertain if the Russian will play their role in the bailout of Cyprus. (Of course, not to mention that Italy is still having leadership struggle)

Meanwhile, the GBP posted way better than expected in its retail sales of 2.1% prior to -0.7% m/m changes. The GBP appreciated against USD and Japanese Yen.  At the same time, we should be concerned that inflation is climbing in U.K (up from 2.7% to 2.8%)

As attached is the analysis on GBPUSD & EURUSD

EURUSD 24MAR13

GBPUSD 24MAR13

p.s: Finally, back on the track to post more update. Look out for more! 🙂

EURUSD trading high, GBPUSD trading low.

The German Ifo Business Climate was  104.2 against forecast of 103.1, up from previous month of 102.4. Traders looked positive on EURUSD with previous data of  German ZEW Economic Sentiment (which was highest since May 2010).

Meanwhile… the U.K had their Preliminary GDP data out which was… 0.3%. It’s a very bad signal to the U.K, which might suggest that the U.K is going for triple dip recession (especially heavy snow seems to hit the retail sales, U.K possibly heading out of EU) GBPUSD traded lower.

All in all, EURGBP showed an uptrend during this timeframe, completing previous Head and Shoulder movement. As follow, is my analysis on EURGBP. 🙂

EURGBP 25JAN