HSBC Flash PMI on Tues, ECB’s decision on Thursday, NFP on Friday, what to expect?

The start of the June is gonna be real volatile with data coming all over the world. Here’s the upcoming data for the week to note.

 

 

With these data coming in the week, please find the below my technical analysis on the following pairs:

Here’s the spreadsheet of my analysis –> FX Analysis – 01JUNE14 (click to download and view)

EURUSD

Last week, I called for a SHORT in EURUSD given the market sentiment expects more easing from the ECB with hints dropped by Draghi. Also I mentioned that, we would be expecting a short correction in this pair and amended TP1 to 1.3600, and it indeed hit 1.3600 and goes all the way to 1.3685 lowest, before closing up to 1.3630 on Friday night.
Similarly, I would see 1.3670 as the KEY support/resistance level. I would take up a position in 1.3650-70 level with higher SL at 1.3750 and targetting 1.3470 which would be the end-zone for double top.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD trades near 1.7000 level in early May only to find itself meets with the bears in at that level. With that in mind, we see GBPUSD traded 200 pips down the following week and hit 1.6691 low last seen on 16 April 2014. Currently, I would be expecting more bears to come into picture. That is, IF only GBPUSD closes below the 100SMAs in daily chart, would more or less confirm the uptrend reversal. Of course, I would be cautious that this could just be a correction in the GBPUSD if by this week it does not close below 1.6700 level.
In mid-term, I would short the GBP with in mind that ECB’s decision could drag the pound down too. The most I would expect the GBPUSD to retest 1.6800 level before hitting down to 1.6600 level.

NZDUSD

China’s Manufacturing PMIs showed of 50.8 reading beating estimates 50.7 and increased from 50.4 last month. With this data, the NZDUSD and AUDUSD high likely open gap high and trade around 0.8500 – 0.8530 level and 0.9320 – 30 level respectively.
Ideally, if the NZDUSD traded around 0.8510 (which is also the double top resistance), it would be the best situation to short the NZDUSD.
With the divergence view of AUDUSD & NZDUSD is well supported by the charting of AUDNZD where daily chart broke through Feb-14 & Dec’13 high and set a tone towards 1.1100 level again.
Previously, I recommended a LONG position expecting to retest 0.8600 – 0.8620 level, only to find it hitting 0.8570 highest. Given that 0.8500 has been breached, and the closing below 0.8520 last Friday, it could indicates more bears waiting to enter the market at 0.8500 – 0.8520 level.

AUDUSD

China’s Manufacturing PMIs showed of 50.8 reading beating estimates 50.7 and increased from 50.4 last month. With this data, the NZDUSD and AUDUSD high likely open gap high and trade around 0.8500 – 0.8530 level and 0.9320 – 30 level respectively.
Unlike the NZDUS, the movement for AUDUSD would high likely follow through the formation of double bottom formed in H1 chart. On top of that, we see divergence between price action and indicators shows of potential uptrend continuation (to complete Wave5 of Elliot wave).
With the divergence view of AUDUSD & NZDUSD is well supported by the charting of AUDNZD where daily chart broke through Feb-14 & Dec’13 high and set a tone towards 1.1100 level again.

 

USDCHF

Currently still maintain baerish outlook for USDCHF. As we note that there’s reversal patterns formed in daily and H4 (especially a break-out from H1 channel trendline), I would be expecting more bears to join in the crowd.
Most importantly would be the decision on Thursday by the ECB. Currently we know that the Euro is currently being priced in with market expectation of rate cut to negative deposit move. It’s a matter of how much the ECB is gonna do when it comes on Thursday. More than expected, can expect that the Euro to drop further than 1.3600 level.
With that in mind, it can be expected that, most traders will take a short position in EURCHF & EURJPY, i.e. strengthen CHF and YEN, something that we would want to have in this pair.
Of course, not to mention the Euro has always been anti-dollar, so, we have to watch out if the SNB policy maker views on the EURCHF.

Weekly update: Week 26.

Hi guys,

Last week the Dollar surged on higher chances of QE tapering after the FOMC meeting minutes revealed of it. We saw most (in fact all) USD pairs headed south since then and now, we still believe that it will continue to do so. Nevertheless, for the past weeks, the commodity currency pairs has been the leading movement, with the Aussie and Kiwi heading south more than any other pairs.

The loonie weakened further against the greenback after poor Retails Sales and lower inflation, and it broke through 1.0450 resistance previous high.

And given that the EURUSD and GBPUSD has been climbing up to reach previous high (each day around 100 pips movement) with dozen of spinning tops,  gave way to the BEARS and headed south, clocking  more than 100 pips, seem to be have more volatility now.

This week focus will be on these two pairs first. Will be updating the next few later on in the day.

As follows is the analysis:

EURUSD 23JUNE

GBPUSD 23JUNE

Also, as attached is the economic calender for this week. (from DailyFx): Calendar-06-23-2013

Good enough NFP? China data not good enough?

Last Friday, a lot of trader are expecting not so good news for the U.S NFP news. Similarly, I had that perception that the U.s wasn’t doing that well, not to mention that the NFP should be negative too. The EURUSD, GBPUSD traded higher, breaking 1.33 and 1.56 respectively. However the Unemployment rate edged up by 0.1% (not surprisingly, given that there are more Unemployment Claim recently) and NFP created 175K jobs against 165K expected.

And over the weekend, China Trade Balance posted slightly lower than expected, CPI & PPI is lower than expected, Fixed Asset Investment & Industrial Production showed 20.4% against 20.6% expected and 9.2% against 9.3% respectively.

Monday is Australia and China’s Bank Holiday.

Nevertheless, here are the analysis on the EURUSD, GBPUSD & AUDUSD.

AUDUSD 9JUNE

EURUSD 9JUNE

GBPUSD 9JUNE

Moving forward, this week more volatility is expected in the Japanese Yen pairs, the EURO, and Aussie & Kiwi at the start of the week. Moving into the mid-week, the NZD is expected more movement before the RBNZ rate decision.  Thursday we want to look out for U.S Retail Sales to have an indication of consumer’s confidence in the economy.  Also we are seeing if the Aussie creating more jobs and if Unemployment rate is higher than before. Lastly, we want to see U.S Consumer Sentiment at the end of the week/day before closing off. On the 14th, Abe is expected to give more direction with his “Third Arrow of the Abenomics” That will bring more firepower to the USDJPY pairs.

Happy trading ahead! 🙂

Australia posted stagnant growth of 0.6% against 0.6% previous quarter

Week 23, MID-WEEK updates.

As follows are the mid-week updates on the EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD.

EURUSD:

Commentary :
As there is still room for the EURUSD to head up to 1.3100 level, will be expecting placing  a SHORT at the 1.3140 level with a SL above 1.3200 and TP @ 1.2980. RRR will be 2.3.

GBPUSD:

Commentary :
Will be expecting the GBPUSD to head up re-test previous high level and at the same time, will be looking out for divergence in price action against MACD/RSI. Therefore, will be expecting a SHORT for this pair @ 1.5380, TP1 @ 1.5260, TP2 @ 1.5180 with a SL above 1.5430.

AUDUSD:

Commentary :
The AUDUSD posted 0.6% GBP growth against prior quarter 0.6%, falling short of 0.2% of expectation of 0.8%. My take in the AUDUSD today will be a SHORT at 0.9680, with a SL @ 0.9720, TP @ 0.9550.

On the side note, today major economic data we want to take note is the

U.K Service PMI – 52.9 previous month against 53.1 expectation.
Spain & Italy Service PMI – with both expectation to be higher than previous month
Eurzone Retail Sales – Expectation of -0.2% against -0.1% previous month
U.S. ADP Non-farm employment change – where expectation is 171K against 119K previous month (This is will be a huge moving factor the USD based CCY.
Canada’s Building Permit – where expectation is -2.6% against 8.6% previous month
U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI – Expectation is 53.4 against 53.1 previous month
Lastly, Factory Orders m/m – Expectation of 1.6% against -4.9% previously.

Of all this, we would also like to take note that the U.S. Beige Book will be released at 2AM (GMT+8) later tonight.

That’s all for now. We will be reviewing the USDJPY soon tonight. Especially when Abe revealed the Third Arrow of his Abenomics, and we try to see the impact of that on the USDJPY. Tentatively, people are deeming it to be not as powerful as expected, and we are seeing the USDJPY falling below 100 again upon hitting previous low support level (100.45).

Updates in week 23 analysis

Hello everyone,

A few days ago, I have made analysis on most of the USD based major pairs (EUR, GBP, CHF, CAD, NZD, AUD). And true enough, we are seeing the USD weaken after a poor ISM Manufacturing data of 49.0 only against 50.6 expectations and 50.7 in previous month. The US has not seen pessimism since Dec’12 2012, and probably the first decline below 50.0 this year so far.

Of course, the bulls rider, rides on this opportunity and most of my prediction came to past. Let’s try to recap on my stand:

EURUSD:
My take was to LONG; it hits 1.2970, TP 1 @ 1.3050, TP 2 @ 1.3100. Both TP hit.
Subsequently, next move is to SHORT the EURUSD @ 1.3140, TP 1.2980, 1.2740. (Price was not achieved, EURHSD highest was 1.3106 on Monday)

No. of pips: + 210 pips

GBPUSD: 
Initial take was LONG @ 1.5170, TP 1 @ 1.5280, TP 2 @ 1.5340. SL @ 1.5125 & 1.5070. However, the opening on Monday was 1.5190 and went up without looking back. Therefore, TP target would have been hit, but position unfulfilled.
Then, next move is to SHORT @ 1.5300, TP 1 @ 1.5170, TP2 @ 1.5030, SL @ 1.5340, 1.5420. Position filled, but hit SL1 @ 1.5340.

No. of pips: -40pips

AUDUSD
Both take is to LONG @ 0.9560 @ 0.09520 with a SL @ 0.9470. TP 1: 0.9690, TP2: 0.978, TP 3: 0.9880. The AUDUSD hits 0.9790 highest, hitting TP 1 & 2 range, but not TP3 after positive China Manufacturing PMI, Positive Retail Sales m/m, higher Company profit q/q etc.. most importantly is the poor U.S ISM Manufacturing that creates this opportunity. The sad part is, the positive news of the China Manufacturing PMI has caused gap in Monday’s opening and therefore failed to fill in position.

No. of pips: 0pips

NZDUSD
My take is to LONG @ 0.7930 (failed to hit target by 10pips), TP @ 0.8040 (HIT) and TP 2 @ 0.8130 (Missed by 13 pips).
Second take is to SHORT @ 0.8000 (HIT), TP @ 0.7920 & 0.7820, SL @ 0.8030 (Hit SL) & @ 0.8080 (HIT SL again too)

No. of pips: -110 pips

USDCHF
Both take is to LONG @ 0.9600 (last week position) & LONG @ 0.9540 (this week position) – Both HIT, TP 1 @ 0.9730 (HIT last week), TP2 @ 0.9830 (unfilled, missed by 40pips), SL for both is 0.9470 (both hit – on the poor U.S. ISM Manufacturing results)

No. of pips: -70pips

USDCAD
Both take is to SHORT @ 1.0400 (HIT) & 1.0445 (unfilled), TP 1 @ 1.0300 (HIT) & 1.0230 (unfilled; missed by 30pips), SL @ 1.0470 (NOT hit)

No. of pips: + 100pips

Total gain: 100pips. (if only AUDUSD and NZDUSD order was filled by that 10-20pips difference) Monday earnings would be more than this result.

Nevertheless, we want to move on see for more potential result. Please stay tune tomorrow for mid-week updates. Cheers 🙂

Weekly updates: Week 23

Hello everybody,

Please find the updates for the AUDUSD, EURUSD & GBPUSD pair as follow. Will be updating the USDCHF, USDCAD & NZDUSD pair tonight as I work them out. Also, I will be probably try to add in USDJPY analysis too if time permit. 🙂

AUDUSD 2JUNE

EURUSD 2JUNE

GBPUSD 2JUNE

As usual, this week economic calendar are as follow: Calendar-02-06-2013 (Source from DailyFx.com)

As you can see, this week is the start o the week. We will be taking note of AUDUSD, EURUSD & GBPUSD (and USDJPY) more than any other pairs due the reasons of the number of news coming out this week.

AUDUSD
Firstly, on Saturday morning, China released it’s official Manufacturing PMI data showing an improvement of 50.8 against 49.9 expected and 50.6 prior month. This is definitely a boost factor the AUDUSD, which we are likely to see a surge in buyer of the AUDUSD pair. On 23 May, HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI showed a contraction of 49.6, while the official Manufacturing PMI shows expansion of 50.8. My guess is, the AUDUSD hit below 0.9600 level on Friday closing is because of the fear of Flash PMI tells of some story to some traders. Nevertheless, this fundamental news is bringing a strong case on the AUDUSD analysis.
On Monday morning, we are looking towards Australia’s Retail Sales m/m as well as Company Operating Profits q/q to give a better sense of direction of the how well is the economy is doing.  Also HBSC Final Manufacturing data. Of course, the RBA decision on the Cash Rate on Tuesday morning (which i doubt they will cut given last month they cut to 2.75%). On Wednesday, the GDP of Australia followed by Thursday’s Trade Balance and finally Saturday morning we are looking to China’s Trade Balance, to understand if there’s improvement on the import and export from China demand.

EURUSD
Monday morning, we are looking to the official  Spanish Manufacturing PMI as well as Italy’s Manufacturing PMI. On Tuesday, we are seeing Spain’s unemployment change, where economist expecting more unemployment change in Spain. Then followed by Wednesday where we are looking to Spain & Italy’s Services PMI and the Eurozone’s Retail Sales.
Then comes Thursday, where we are looking the 10-year bond auction from Spain & France (particularly more interested in Spain, to know if borrowing cost is increasing [i.e. higher risk]). Also German’s Factory Order. Most importantly the ECB’s interest rate which was cut to 0.50% last month, and the comment from the ECB’s President, Mr. Mario Draghi.
Last but not least, German’s Industrial Production and Trade Balance released on Friday.

GBPUSD
On Monday, U.K. Manufacturing PMI would have certain impact on the GBPUSD, given that economist are expecting an expansion of 50.3 compared to contraction previous month of 49.8. Then on Tuesday (could be released no later than 7th June), we can have a better understanding of the U.K Housing Price Index (HPI) as well as Construction PMI.
On Wednesday, we would then see U.K Service’s PMI and as the Euro, the BOE will be highlighting if any rate cute or increment of their Quantitative Easing purchase. Most importantly, we want to note the MPC Rate Statement to look out for any clues of their current QE movement or if inflation/economy is of any concern.
Then we will close off on Friday with U.K’s consumer inflation expectation and Trade Balance.

Most importantly, this week we are seeing and expecting more U.S. news to impact on the movement of the currency given that most major pairs analysis are done against the USD. This week data could further hint to everyone if the Fed are going to taper their QE program, something a pro-dollar person would love it.

Happy trading! 🙂 Look out for more analysis later tonight or tomorrow morning.

Updates for the last day of week and month!

Hello guys,

I have updated my view for the last day of the week and month for the following pairs:

Starting from the EURUSD, if this close up high (above 1.3030) , we are seeing that the EURUSD closing up consecutively two weeks then. However, if it were to close way below 1.3000 level, then we can more or less be assured that the EURUSD might be heading downtrend instead.

My person take in this pair is to short, when the EURUSD break below 1.3000 again, and to stay out if it goes higher.

 

 

Next, we are looking at GBPUSD. After breaking out from the it’s weekly pennant patterns, the GBPUSD has been on a streak on closing down. Then it retraced up to 50% before heading down to 1.5000 level, and kept retesting that area. But realized that as much as this pair wants to break below 1.5000, we are seeing it testing that level twice this week, and twice last week. So, please find as attached the analysis for this pair.

 

 

Next, is the NZDUSD pair. if this pair continues closed at 0.8070-0.8100 range, we are definitely see another uncertainty bar closing up. Well, that would leaves us puzzling becoz the NZDUSD can definitely either head up or down, but one thing for sure is that the month of May, is the month of NZD BEARS force. Nevertheless, in the short run, I still hold the view that the NZDUSD will retrace. So as follows are the analysis of it:

 

Then we look at AUDUSD. Interestingly is this pair breaking down 1.0000 level in the first week, break past 0.9800 level second week and 3rd week past the 0.9700 and now into the 4th week, broke 0.9600 level. Needless to view the monthly chart, we know that the AUDUSD is similar to the NZDUSD, is the month of BEAR force. However, I would like to bring your attention to the fact that if the AUDUSD closes above 0.9600/0.9700, it would probably tells that the bear will be retreating very soon. Please find the analysis for AUDUSD once again, p.s I’m maintaining bull force on this pair now.

 

Lastly, it’s the USDCAD. This pair is important on how it closes for the week. One main reason is the fact that it went testing near 1.0450 level and notice that it doesn’t even break past 1.0420. If this pair closes 1.0250 – 1.0320 range, I think it is a good sign that this pair will most probably head down more. However, I still feel that this USDCAD has room to test higher alittle. Just a gut feel though.

 

 

Happy trading and happy weekend ahead! 🙂

US not being supportive,looks like QE tapering not so close yet.

As follows are the updates for the past two days:

We see that the AUDUSD generally has been weaker than I have expected. The pair broke low 40pips more than I have expected, hitting 0.9530 low, a low not seen a year ago. Re-entered AUDUSD @ 0.9632 & 0.9614. TP @ 0.9665/70. (As the AUDUSD is facing strong resistance at 0.9700 and has failed to breakthrough it)

USDCAD failed to break past 1.0420 and hit 1.0300 low. (It’s a pity that I was hit stop loss at 1.0420), re-entered at 1.0360 after confirmation of dark cloud formed at the peak. Target TP level is 1.0270 though.

USDCHF long price at 0.9600 & 0.9540 was in place. Stop loss at 0.9480, while TP remains at 0.9800 & 0.9900.

EURUSD both was stopped out at 1.03030 level.

GBPUSD shorted at 1.5150 and hit TP at 1.5030. Thankfully, it hit TP before it goes all the way to 1.5200 and above.

USDJPY was very volatile. Strong still seen at 100.50 – 100.80 range, while the peak it could go for now is 102 range to 103.50 range. Entered this pair at 100.78, going LONG.

AUDJPY new orders was made. Went long on this pair at 97.42 with a SL & TP at 96.80 & 98.42 respectively.

EURGBP, shorted at 0.8582 with a SL @ 0.8630, while TP is at 0.8530. (Facing strong resistance @ 0.8600)

NZDUSD, LONG @ 0.8020 with a target of 0.8120, SL @ 0.7980.

As follows, I had two stopped out (USDCAD, EURUSD) while I have also two TP (GBPUSD, AUDUSD). Also currently in position is also AUDJPY, USDJPY, NZDUSD & USDCHF. 🙂

Brief summary of data released for the past two days:

BOC left interest-rate at 1% unchanged, BOC’s Governor Mark Carney has made his last decision and awaits for next BOC’s governor to show more rooms of improvement.

UK’s CBI Realized Sales was -11 against 4 expected and -1 prior, poorer performance from the UK side.
Nationwide HPI m/m was 0.4% against 0.5% expected.

Australia’s Building Approval m/m was 9.1% against 4.1% expected and -5.5% prior month. This shows of more potential construction domestically. However, CAPEX fell from -2.1% prior quarter to -4.7% this quarter. Expectation was 0.7%.

German’s unemployment change was higher than expected and Prelim CPI was better than expected.
Italy’s 10-bond yield bid higher by 20bp, from 3.94% to 4.14%.

U.S’s Prelim GDP q/q was 0.1% off the expectation mark while Unemployment claims was higher by 10k compared to previous month. What makes the dollar weaken more was poorer than expected Pending Home Sales m/m, with 0.3% only against 1.3% expectation and 1.5% prior month.

U.K, U.S holidays.. low volatility seen

Yesterday the market was quiet, no much movement. However, the important thing is if you were to follow previously analysis, we would have hit the following:

USDCHF long order @ 0.9600; currently + 60pips

AUDUSD both longs orders @ 0.9600, 0.9630; currently -15pips

GBPUSD short order @ 1.5150; currently + 70pips

EURUSD short order @ 1.2935; currently + 35pips

And like i mentioned, there is strong support at 100.60-100.80 range, if we to long at USDJPY at that price, we would have also been 100pips profit.

 

Just a brief market summary too:

Nikkei closed at 13, 924 and this morning shot up by 3.2% before falling back by 1.63% up. 

Japan Finance minister Aso: Selling 5-10bn JGB to individuals each month

We are expecting to see USDJPY to hit back 103 level and probably even higher, well i’m not surprise at all bout this. We shall see it to 105 level, where everyone is expecting.

Weekly update: Week 22

This week we will be expecting more volatility on the EUR and USD based currency at the later part of the week. Last week, we saw that the dollar lost some of it’s strength at the end of the week. This week, we will be expecting more movement.

Please look at this week economic calendar. Today is U.S & U.K holidays, so I’m not expecting much movement in the fx market.

Of course, last week the Japanese yen has been retracing back and forth of its 100-102 yen per dollar range and that is an important range we would like to look into it. Temporary, I’m seeing more buyers at that range (100.50 – 101.00), showing strong support at that level. Yet at the same time, Nikkei has fell sharply (7.3%) before closing up at 14,600 range on Friday. Today morning we are seeing the Nikkei falling 1.44%, closing at near 14,026.

As follows are the weekly update for the major USD currency pairs.

AUDUSD 26MAY

EURUSD 25MAY13

GBPUSD 26MAY

NZDUSD 26MAY

USDCAD 26MAY

USDCHF 26MAY