Weekly Update Week 15

Last week the newly appointed BOJ Haruhiko Kuroda unveiled the world most intense burst of monetary easing, an amount comparable to what the Fed has been doing. Given that the Japan economy is only the third largest in the world while the U.S the largest economy in the world, yet the quantitative easing measure by the Bank of Japan shows that they are really damn serious about reviving Japan’s economy by weakening the Japanese yen and try to boost export back to it’s level.  All major yen pairs depreciated by at least 600 pips. As of today, the USDJPY by 6.5%, GBPJPY by 8.08%, EURJPY by 7.83%, AUDJPY by 5.62%.

At the same time, EURUSD and GBPUSD both reversed it trend and seems to be on the retracement movement for now. We have seen one of the worse Non-farm Employment change in the U.S, creating 88 thousands jobs only in the month of March. The last seen poor data was in June 2012.

As a result, previous position all hit SL before taking profits.

As follows are the updates on AUDUSD 9APR EURUSD 9APR13 GBPUSD 9APR13

A reversal scene seen: GBP remain bull while EUR & tumbled

UK
For the first time in history, the next governor of Bank of England, Mark Carney sat in a 3 and 1/2 half session of meeting with the lawmakers pushed the GBPUSD up to 1.5760 and GBPJPY to 147.95 before erasing back to previous level of 1.5700 and 146.55.  Unexpected reaction from the market whipsaw both my GBP trades and hit the stop loss. However, my bearish remains and exceptionally strong this time.
U.K posted better than forecast result in their Manufacturing Product m/m, increasing from -0.3% up to 1.6%. BOE held rates at 0.50% and remain current Asset Purchasing at 375B. However the designated governor – Carney – set for high alteration in Britain’s monetary policies. 

 

EUR
EURUSD continued it slides and breakthrough the 1.3400 level, a level seen as a good support. (bounced off a few times). The EUR rallied on the opening of European market together with the GBP. The ECB held rates at 0.75%
EUR JPY likewise has tumbled from 127.45 down to 124.45, 300 pips down.

AUD
AUDUSD continued it slides although the unemployment rate remains unexpectedly and employment change were 5k more than expected, the AUD continues falling on expectation that the RBA will take action the next month. NAB Quarterly Business Confidence  revised previous quarter rating of -4 from -2,  and latest quarter shows a rating of -5 shows of poorer data. NAB Business Confidence has fallen for 4th consecutive quarters.
Right now, the AUDUSD  trade is in the money of almost 150 pips now.

NZD
Following the AUDUSD, NZDUSD tumbled as well, from 0.8457 down to 0.8300 after it’s release of poor employment change (q/q) although unemployment rate did fell from 7.3% down to 6.9%.

JPY
The JPY is the great mover of the GBPJPY & EURJPY. The JPY traded down to 93.20 before heading back to 93.90 after the timing where GBP and EUR rallied. Likewise, the JPY fell after failing to break previous high. Japan posted better than expected in Core Machinery Orders, 2.8% to -0.7%.

US
Unemployment claims fell from 371K to 366K, although it was more than what was predicted. Non-farm productivity was -2.0% compared to previous quarter of -2.9% while Unit Labor Cost increased to 4.5%. Mostly USD pairs fell (i.e. the Dollar strengthen against them)

The following are my CCY pairs analysis. 🙂

NZDUSD 8FEB13

GBPJPY 6FEB – Hit SL due to fundamental push.

EURJPY 6FEB13

Strengthening yen?

The announcement from BOJ yesterday has dragged most JPY based pairs down. As follows are my analysis on the GBPJPY, EURJPY & USDJPY 🙂

At the same time, the BOE would be announcing their MPC Meeting Minutes  if there will be any interest rate cut or increase of asset purchasing. U.K will also be releasing their Claimant Court Change and the unemployment, expecting an increased in Claimant Court while U.K unemployment is expected to remain at 7.8%.

British PM, David Cameron said to be holding out an “in-out referendum” on EU membership in more than 40years. He will be speaking to the public in just a few minutes time. Let’s see how is it gonna be impacting the sterling pound. – http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9819717/Cameron-Ill-hold-an-in-out-vote-on-Europe.html

USDJPY 23JAN13

GBPJPY 23JAN13

EURJPY 23JAN13