Weekly updates: Week 24 part 2

Sorry for the late update on the NZDUSD, USDCAD.

Please find the attached the file for NZDUSD, USDCAD as of 9JUNE.

NZDUSD 9JUNE

USDCAD 9JUNE

 

So far here’s the update on previous analysis:

AUDUSD position has been filled @ 0.9410, 0.9380 missed by 1-2pips. TP target: 0.9510, followed by 0.9610

EURUSD position 1.3160 missed target by 20pips and since then the target was not seen anymore. Therefore, we have to cancel that position.

The same goes for GBPUSD, buy limit @ 1.5460, missed target by 30-40pips, and currently trading at 1.5580. Cancel position

USDCAD position filled @ 1.0210 short, TP 1.0150 and 1.0050. SL target is 1.0230.

NZDUSD short position was filled @ 0.7910, TP target @ 0.7780.

NZDUSD long position initially missed target by 30pips @ 0.7800 where low is 0.7828. – position to be cancelled.

GBP up, EUR down, U.S Non-farm employment next.

U.K posted more positive Service PMI than expected in the month of May, 54.9 against 53.1 expected and 52.9 previously.

On the other hand, we see the eurobloc retail sales falling by -0.5% against -0.2% previously (and expected) causing the EURUSD to fall as well.

Next up, is the U.S non-farm employment change, which would tell if there’s much more job creation than expected last month.

Here’s an update on the NZDUSD, USDCHF & USDCAD

Starting of with the USDCHF:

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Commentary:
As noted, I still view the USDCHF as bullish in general. On main reason behind the bullishness is my take/view on the EURUSD that it’s bearish soon, and on also on the fact that in H1, we are seeing minor divergence in price action against MACD/RSI. Therefore, my take is to LONG if there’s a breakout from 0.9520 (i.e. LONG @ 0.9540), SL @ 0.9480 while TP1 @ 0.9600, TP2@ 0.9720.

USDCAD:

Commentary:
On the view of the USDCAD, we are taking note if the USDCAD will resist the channel trendline and head to test 1.0290 support level. Should there be any breakout, from 1.0290 level, next level is 1.0215 support. Therefore, my take is a SHORT @ 1.0350 with a SL @ 1.0380, TP 1 @ 1.0290, & TP2 @ 1.0230.

NZDUSD:

Commentary:
Took up a SHORT position @ 0.8045, after a rising star pattern formed at H1 chart. Therefore, Short @ 0.8045, TP @ 0.7960, SL @ 0.8080. Will be expecting the NZDUSD to retest previous low first and monitor further more.

 

 

Updates in week 23 analysis

Hello everyone,

A few days ago, I have made analysis on most of the USD based major pairs (EUR, GBP, CHF, CAD, NZD, AUD). And true enough, we are seeing the USD weaken after a poor ISM Manufacturing data of 49.0 only against 50.6 expectations and 50.7 in previous month. The US has not seen pessimism since Dec’12 2012, and probably the first decline below 50.0 this year so far.

Of course, the bulls rider, rides on this opportunity and most of my prediction came to past. Let’s try to recap on my stand:

EURUSD:
My take was to LONG; it hits 1.2970, TP 1 @ 1.3050, TP 2 @ 1.3100. Both TP hit.
Subsequently, next move is to SHORT the EURUSD @ 1.3140, TP 1.2980, 1.2740. (Price was not achieved, EURHSD highest was 1.3106 on Monday)

No. of pips: + 210 pips

GBPUSD: 
Initial take was LONG @ 1.5170, TP 1 @ 1.5280, TP 2 @ 1.5340. SL @ 1.5125 & 1.5070. However, the opening on Monday was 1.5190 and went up without looking back. Therefore, TP target would have been hit, but position unfulfilled.
Then, next move is to SHORT @ 1.5300, TP 1 @ 1.5170, TP2 @ 1.5030, SL @ 1.5340, 1.5420. Position filled, but hit SL1 @ 1.5340.

No. of pips: -40pips

AUDUSD
Both take is to LONG @ 0.9560 @ 0.09520 with a SL @ 0.9470. TP 1: 0.9690, TP2: 0.978, TP 3: 0.9880. The AUDUSD hits 0.9790 highest, hitting TP 1 & 2 range, but not TP3 after positive China Manufacturing PMI, Positive Retail Sales m/m, higher Company profit q/q etc.. most importantly is the poor U.S ISM Manufacturing that creates this opportunity. The sad part is, the positive news of the China Manufacturing PMI has caused gap in Monday’s opening and therefore failed to fill in position.

No. of pips: 0pips

NZDUSD
My take is to LONG @ 0.7930 (failed to hit target by 10pips), TP @ 0.8040 (HIT) and TP 2 @ 0.8130 (Missed by 13 pips).
Second take is to SHORT @ 0.8000 (HIT), TP @ 0.7920 & 0.7820, SL @ 0.8030 (Hit SL) & @ 0.8080 (HIT SL again too)

No. of pips: -110 pips

USDCHF
Both take is to LONG @ 0.9600 (last week position) & LONG @ 0.9540 (this week position) – Both HIT, TP 1 @ 0.9730 (HIT last week), TP2 @ 0.9830 (unfilled, missed by 40pips), SL for both is 0.9470 (both hit – on the poor U.S. ISM Manufacturing results)

No. of pips: -70pips

USDCAD
Both take is to SHORT @ 1.0400 (HIT) & 1.0445 (unfilled), TP 1 @ 1.0300 (HIT) & 1.0230 (unfilled; missed by 30pips), SL @ 1.0470 (NOT hit)

No. of pips: + 100pips

Total gain: 100pips. (if only AUDUSD and NZDUSD order was filled by that 10-20pips difference) Monday earnings would be more than this result.

Nevertheless, we want to move on see for more potential result. Please stay tune tomorrow for mid-week updates. Cheers 🙂

Another weekly updates!

Please find the following attached files the updates for NZDUSD, USDCAD & USDCHF.

NZDUSD 2JUNE, USDCAD 2JUNE, USDCHF 2JUNE

Do note that there won’t be much data on the kiwi this week, as well as for the franc (except for CPI and Foreign Reserve Balance on Thursday & Friday respectively)

THE LOONIE

On Tuesday, there will be information on Canada’s Trade Balance, followed by Building Permits m/m on Wednesday night. Then on Thursday, we will be looking out for the Ivey PMI where there is expectation for higher expansion, before closing off on Friday the employment change and unemployment rate together with the U.S employment data.

 

Updates for the last day of week and month!

Hello guys,

I have updated my view for the last day of the week and month for the following pairs:

Starting from the EURUSD, if this close up high (above 1.3030) , we are seeing that the EURUSD closing up consecutively two weeks then. However, if it were to close way below 1.3000 level, then we can more or less be assured that the EURUSD might be heading downtrend instead.

My person take in this pair is to short, when the EURUSD break below 1.3000 again, and to stay out if it goes higher.

 

 

Next, we are looking at GBPUSD. After breaking out from the it’s weekly pennant patterns, the GBPUSD has been on a streak on closing down. Then it retraced up to 50% before heading down to 1.5000 level, and kept retesting that area. But realized that as much as this pair wants to break below 1.5000, we are seeing it testing that level twice this week, and twice last week. So, please find as attached the analysis for this pair.

 

 

Next, is the NZDUSD pair. if this pair continues closed at 0.8070-0.8100 range, we are definitely see another uncertainty bar closing up. Well, that would leaves us puzzling becoz the NZDUSD can definitely either head up or down, but one thing for sure is that the month of May, is the month of NZD BEARS force. Nevertheless, in the short run, I still hold the view that the NZDUSD will retrace. So as follows are the analysis of it:

 

Then we look at AUDUSD. Interestingly is this pair breaking down 1.0000 level in the first week, break past 0.9800 level second week and 3rd week past the 0.9700 and now into the 4th week, broke 0.9600 level. Needless to view the monthly chart, we know that the AUDUSD is similar to the NZDUSD, is the month of BEAR force. However, I would like to bring your attention to the fact that if the AUDUSD closes above 0.9600/0.9700, it would probably tells that the bear will be retreating very soon. Please find the analysis for AUDUSD once again, p.s I’m maintaining bull force on this pair now.

 

Lastly, it’s the USDCAD. This pair is important on how it closes for the week. One main reason is the fact that it went testing near 1.0450 level and notice that it doesn’t even break past 1.0420. If this pair closes 1.0250 – 1.0320 range, I think it is a good sign that this pair will most probably head down more. However, I still feel that this USDCAD has room to test higher alittle. Just a gut feel though.

 

 

Happy trading and happy weekend ahead! 🙂

US not being supportive,looks like QE tapering not so close yet.

As follows are the updates for the past two days:

We see that the AUDUSD generally has been weaker than I have expected. The pair broke low 40pips more than I have expected, hitting 0.9530 low, a low not seen a year ago. Re-entered AUDUSD @ 0.9632 & 0.9614. TP @ 0.9665/70. (As the AUDUSD is facing strong resistance at 0.9700 and has failed to breakthrough it)

USDCAD failed to break past 1.0420 and hit 1.0300 low. (It’s a pity that I was hit stop loss at 1.0420), re-entered at 1.0360 after confirmation of dark cloud formed at the peak. Target TP level is 1.0270 though.

USDCHF long price at 0.9600 & 0.9540 was in place. Stop loss at 0.9480, while TP remains at 0.9800 & 0.9900.

EURUSD both was stopped out at 1.03030 level.

GBPUSD shorted at 1.5150 and hit TP at 1.5030. Thankfully, it hit TP before it goes all the way to 1.5200 and above.

USDJPY was very volatile. Strong still seen at 100.50 – 100.80 range, while the peak it could go for now is 102 range to 103.50 range. Entered this pair at 100.78, going LONG.

AUDJPY new orders was made. Went long on this pair at 97.42 with a SL & TP at 96.80 & 98.42 respectively.

EURGBP, shorted at 0.8582 with a SL @ 0.8630, while TP is at 0.8530. (Facing strong resistance @ 0.8600)

NZDUSD, LONG @ 0.8020 with a target of 0.8120, SL @ 0.7980.

As follows, I had two stopped out (USDCAD, EURUSD) while I have also two TP (GBPUSD, AUDUSD). Also currently in position is also AUDJPY, USDJPY, NZDUSD & USDCHF. 🙂

Brief summary of data released for the past two days:

BOC left interest-rate at 1% unchanged, BOC’s Governor Mark Carney has made his last decision and awaits for next BOC’s governor to show more rooms of improvement.

UK’s CBI Realized Sales was -11 against 4 expected and -1 prior, poorer performance from the UK side.
Nationwide HPI m/m was 0.4% against 0.5% expected.

Australia’s Building Approval m/m was 9.1% against 4.1% expected and -5.5% prior month. This shows of more potential construction domestically. However, CAPEX fell from -2.1% prior quarter to -4.7% this quarter. Expectation was 0.7%.

German’s unemployment change was higher than expected and Prelim CPI was better than expected.
Italy’s 10-bond yield bid higher by 20bp, from 3.94% to 4.14%.

U.S’s Prelim GDP q/q was 0.1% off the expectation mark while Unemployment claims was higher by 10k compared to previous month. What makes the dollar weaken more was poorer than expected Pending Home Sales m/m, with 0.3% only against 1.3% expectation and 1.5% prior month.

Weekly update: Week 22

This week we will be expecting more volatility on the EUR and USD based currency at the later part of the week. Last week, we saw that the dollar lost some of it’s strength at the end of the week. This week, we will be expecting more movement.

Please look at this week economic calendar. Today is U.S & U.K holidays, so I’m not expecting much movement in the fx market.

Of course, last week the Japanese yen has been retracing back and forth of its 100-102 yen per dollar range and that is an important range we would like to look into it. Temporary, I’m seeing more buyers at that range (100.50 – 101.00), showing strong support at that level. Yet at the same time, Nikkei has fell sharply (7.3%) before closing up at 14,600 range on Friday. Today morning we are seeing the Nikkei falling 1.44%, closing at near 14,026.

As follows are the weekly update for the major USD currency pairs.

AUDUSD 26MAY

EURUSD 25MAY13

GBPUSD 26MAY

NZDUSD 26MAY

USDCAD 26MAY

USDCHF 26MAY

 

Mr. Ben hinted, FOMC minutes shows… tapering is possible!

Yesterday we saw the dollar strengthen once again when the Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke highlighted of tapering the QE if data allows. The initial lack of hint of the tapering of QE send the EURUSD up to 1.2990 level (50% of retracement) before heading downtrend and hit 1.2820 level.

At the same time, USDJPY, USDCAD, USDCHF all broke out the previous resistance and heading towards next level of high.

USDCHF probably will try to hit 0.9950 – 0.9980 range, the end zone of the inverse head and shoulder.

USDCAD broke 1.0330 high, probably next level hitting 1.0420 – 1.0440 range. the next level of resistance.

USDJPY closed 103.29 gap and hit 103.72 high before coming back to 103 level. The closing of gap signal a potential downtrend incoming although the USDJPY major trend tells of an uptrend.

EURUSD hit 1.2990 level (50% retracement), whipped saw 1.2970 level and plunged the moment Ben Bernanke signaled potential tapering of QE.

Similarly, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD all tried to break past previous low support (which turned into resistance) but failed and headed south the moment Bernanke hinted at tapering of QE.

We saw very volatile movement for the 1-2hours Mr.Ben session.

 

Key economic data released yesterday was:

• US Existing Home Sale performed poorer than expected, 4.97m sold against expected of 4.99m. Prior is 4.92m
• AUS Westpac Consumer Sentiment remained low, -7.0% against -5.2% previous month.
• BOJ leaves interest rate unchanged and continuation of current QE level.
• U.K Retail Sales was bad, -0.2% compared to 0.0% expected and prior is -0.6% (revised from -0.7%)
• German 10-year Bund yield increased, from 1.28% to 1.41%.
• Cananda Retail Sales equally bad, -0.2% against expected of 0.2% and 0.7% prior.

Economic data today:

Today China released HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI reading of  49.6 (pessimistic reading) against 50.5 expected, 50.4 prior.  AUDUSD tumbled around 40pips upon the released of this reading. (from 0.9665 down to 0.9626)

We are expecting more PMI reading from the EU two largest economy – French PMI & German PMI, as well as the Eurozone PMI

U.K will be releasing the second reading of the GDP q/q later at 4.30PM (GMT+8)

Lastly, followed by the U.S Unemployment claims and New Home Sales at 8.30PM & 10PM respectively (GMT+8).

 

Happy trading!