EURUSD trading high, GBPUSD trading low.

The German Ifo Business Climate was  104.2 against forecast of 103.1, up from previous month of 102.4. Traders looked positive on EURUSD with previous data of  German ZEW Economic Sentiment (which was highest since May 2010).

Meanwhile… the U.K had their Preliminary GDP data out which was… –0.3%. It’s a very bad signal to the U.K, which might suggest that the U.K is going for triple dip recession (especially heavy snow seems to hit the retail sales, U.K possibly heading out of EU) GBPUSD traded lower.

All in all, EURGBP showed an uptrend during this timeframe, completing previous Head and Shoulder movement. As follow, is my analysis on EURGBP. 🙂

EURGBP 25JAN

The Aussie

The Aussie fell after failing to hit previous high upon China PMI data released. The world second largest economy deemed to have been rebounded after 12-months of pessimistic manufacturing data (HSBC PMI below 50). Therefore below are the analysis of AUDUSD for the next few days.

AUDUSD 24JAN

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The US Unemployment claim fell unexpectedly by 5,000 from previous claims of 335K. This is a good signal for the U.S as employment seems to be on the rise.

At the same time, today European countries released flash service and manufacturing PMI. 

1) French  Manufacturing and Service PMI appeared lower than expected, dropping from 44.6 and 45.2 down to 42.9 and 43.6 respectively.

2) Spanish unemployment claims raise to 26% from 25% previously. (THAT’s about 12.27 millions people who is unemployed)

3) On the other hand, German Manufacturing and Service PMI revealed to be higher than expected, increased from 46.0 and 52.0  to 48.8 and 55.3 respectively. (Well, manufacturing PMI are still below 50, not an ideal thing to looking forward for)

4) In overall, Eurozone Current Account almost doubled, from 8 billion to 14.8 billions. The Eurozone flash manufacturing and service PMI shown improvement.

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Btw, the GBPUSD analysis i did a few days ago has hit the entry target @ 1.5790. Next thing to do is to monitor when to exit. 🙂

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Let’s look forward to tomorrow U.K Prelim GDP, U.S New Home Sales and German Ifo Business Climate for more volatility. 🙂 Personally, I’m looking for a SHORT-ing entry point for EURJPY.

Strengthening yen?

The announcement from BOJ yesterday has dragged most JPY based pairs down. As follows are my analysis on the GBPJPY, EURJPY & USDJPY 🙂

At the same time, the BOE would be announcing their MPC Meeting Minutes  if there will be any interest rate cut or increase of asset purchasing. U.K will also be releasing their Claimant Court Change and the unemployment, expecting an increased in Claimant Court while U.K unemployment is expected to remain at 7.8%.

British PM, David Cameron said to be holding out an “in-out referendum” on EU membership in more than 40years. He will be speaking to the public in just a few minutes time. Let’s see how is it gonna be impacting the sterling pound. – http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9819717/Cameron-Ill-hold-an-in-out-vote-on-Europe.html

USDJPY 23JAN13

GBPJPY 23JAN13

EURJPY 23JAN13

GBP analysis

The U.K has been bearish for the past week as poor retail sales hit U.K . U.K might be facing triple dip recession due to heavy snow deterring lesser street spending. The decreased in spending could potentially hurt the retail sales as it did two years ago. The Prelim GDP will be revealed this coming Friday.

Also do lookout for economic data this week, there will be the release of the Claimant Court as well as the MPC minutes for the monetary moves from the BOE.

GBPUSD analysis done for the week.

GBPUSD 21JAN13

Trading plans

The following are set of discipline I have always told myself to keep to, in order to profit from the small and survive from the big. Trading is all about following your trading plan, you have to have a trading plan to trade. You have to know what’s your risk appetite. You have to know the game. And the following are just a set of rules I set, and hope it does help you. 🙂

My personal trading Plan

Trading rule #1:  Market is always your friend. Stay close with your friend.

Trading rule #2: Being patient. All good stuff comes with being patient. By being patient, you control your emotion, control the biggest factor of trading — GREED & FEAR

Trading rule #3: Risk management. (For me, I look for maximum 3%-5% risk of portfolio)

Trading rule #4: Look out for signal, especially reversal signal. Support and resistance are basic, followed by trendline support/resistance, indicators, candle stick patterns.

Trading rule #5: Looking for divergence. (For me, I look for RSI and MCAD divergence)

Cheers.