RBNZ decision next, U.S’s retail sales and Euro slumped, To be updated.

In less than 3hours, RBNZ will be releasing their interest rate decision where most economist are expecting RBNZ to hike rate by 25 basis points. I will drop an update on NZDUSD and AUDUSD after the decsion.

 

Meanwhile, EURUSD has hit my first TP level @ 1.3510 before rebounding back to 1.3530, I am still maintaining bearish view with cautious as I do note that there may be a chance of correction.

EURJPY has hit both TP (139.10 & 138.10) and poised to move towards 137 next. Am expecting short correction to EURJPY due to over-sold in this pair.

Everything to be updated with charts and explanation after RBNZ’s decision.

 

 

POST ECB’S DECISION MOVEMENT, NFP expected, what’s next?

Last week we see crazy volatility pre-ECB’s decision and post-ECB’s decision. Also we do noticed that the AUDUSD and NZDUSD edged higher – which I may think more because of carry trades in this pairs + safe haven in these pairs. USDCHF failed to hold above 0.9000 and hit 0.8900 back instantly within hours.

Here’s my analysis on what to expect for EURUSD & EURJPY.

EURUSD 

ECB’s Draghi unleashed the historical moves last week – negative deposits – and also other measures that is going to positioning themselves to be unleashed too, if there’s a need for it.
A quick recap – at GMT+8 7.45pm, ECB’s reduced interest rate from 0.25% down to 0.15% (higher than 0.10% expected) shocked the market. EURUSD hit 1.3730 level (one of my shorting price) before tumbling down below 1.3580 as market expecting Draghi to give more hints on more measures. That’s why, prior to Draghi speech, we would see EURUSD tries to hit down below 1.3500. However at the end of Draghi’s talk failed to satisfy the markets lures the bulls in hitting back to 1.3670 level. On Friday, NFP hits more than 200k, within what estimates has – not so much impact seen.
The most important question we need to take out of this is, has ECB done more than what they should in terms of monetary policy? Take a good look at Monday’s opening tells us of the impact of post ECB’s movement. At the end of the day, I still believe EURUSD is poised to be downtrend with tonnes of measures behind waiting to be reloaded.
All we need is just poor growth in countries in EU. 🙂

My take: (click here for analysis: FX Analysis – 09JUNE14 – EURUSD )

CCY PAIR	EURUSD
DATE	10/6/2014
POSITION VIEW	SHORT
Entry Point: (in position)	1.3650-70
TP:	1.3510(TP1) / 1.3460 (TP2)
SL:	1.37500
RRR:	1.42 – 3.125

EURJPY

Similar to EURUSD, EURJPY came under pressure on bears in the EURUSD. We seen the EURJPY trying to re-test 140 level but failed for break out higher than that, creating more bears entering this pair.
As I post this post at this moment, EURJPY TP1 target is hit and looking out to hit TP2 which is 138.10 level. Further down the road, I would be expecting EURJPY hitting 136.50 level.

My take: (click here for analysis: FX Analysis – 09JUNE14 – EURJPY )

CCY PAIR	EURJPY
DATE	10/6/2014
POSITION VIEW	SHORT
Entry Point: (in position)	140.00 – 140.20
TP:	139.10 (TP1) – 138.10 (TP2)
SL:	140.6000

 

p.s. China CPI came out higher @ 2.5% than expected (2.4%). Prior was 1.8%. Will post an update on AUDUSD and NZDUSD trades soon. Current take is AUDUSD to edge higher, NZDUSD to edge lower. 

Increasing Ukraine tension and ECB’s loosening monetary brings bear-ers in EURJPY/USDJPY.

This week we will be touch on the Japanese Yen pairs, and we note that there’s increase in safe haven demand.

As we speak at this moment, Japan’s Prelim GDP rose 1.5% against estimate of 1.0%. EJ trading at 139.69 and UJ trading at 101.81.

Gold has hit 1308.90 high from 1277 low at the start of the work.  and currently trading 1304.60.

NZDUSD trading 0.8668 up from 0.8600.

 

EURJPY market view:

In the long run, we would be expecting the EURJPY to be upward trend. However with the current tension in Ukraine’s civil war and ECB’s stance on loosening monetary policy in June is a double combo movement for the EURJPY on correction.
However, I don’t think the EURJPY will be breaking down as much as 138.30 level (2009 high). However if there’s a breakout from this level, we would be expecting the EURJPY to head down to 136.20 level.
Key note is ECB’s next meeting in June and the increasing demand for safe haven.

USDJPY market view:

The JPY has been climbing up steadily ever since Liberal Demoratic Leader Shinzo Abe took over the role of Prime Minister of Japan. In the long run, we would be expecting the JPY to be upward trend. However, currently we are seeing a minor contraction (strengthening of JPY) due to increase in the demand for safe haven in the midst of Ukraine civil war. Therefore, I would be expecting the USDJPY to test the 101.10-101.40 level with a stop loss at 100.60 before trading back to 104 level again.

 

FX Analysis – 14MAY14

Weekly Update Week 15

Last week the newly appointed BOJ Haruhiko Kuroda unveiled the world most intense burst of monetary easing, an amount comparable to what the Fed has been doing. Given that the Japan economy is only the third largest in the world while the U.S the largest economy in the world, yet the quantitative easing measure by the Bank of Japan shows that they are really damn serious about reviving Japan’s economy by weakening the Japanese yen and try to boost export back to it’s level.  All major yen pairs depreciated by at least 600 pips. As of today, the USDJPY by 6.5%, GBPJPY by 8.08%, EURJPY by 7.83%, AUDJPY by 5.62%.

At the same time, EURUSD and GBPUSD both reversed it trend and seems to be on the retracement movement for now. We have seen one of the worse Non-farm Employment change in the U.S, creating 88 thousands jobs only in the month of March. The last seen poor data was in June 2012.

As a result, previous position all hit SL before taking profits.

As follows are the updates on AUDUSD 9APR EURUSD 9APR13 GBPUSD 9APR13

A reversal scene seen: GBP remain bull while EUR & tumbled

UK
For the first time in history, the next governor of Bank of England, Mark Carney sat in a 3 and 1/2 half session of meeting with the lawmakers pushed the GBPUSD up to 1.5760 and GBPJPY to 147.95 before erasing back to previous level of 1.5700 and 146.55.  Unexpected reaction from the market whipsaw both my GBP trades and hit the stop loss. However, my bearish remains and exceptionally strong this time.
U.K posted better than forecast result in their Manufacturing Product m/m, increasing from -0.3% up to 1.6%. BOE held rates at 0.50% and remain current Asset Purchasing at 375B. However the designated governor – Carney – set for high alteration in Britain’s monetary policies. 

 

EUR
EURUSD continued it slides and breakthrough the 1.3400 level, a level seen as a good support. (bounced off a few times). The EUR rallied on the opening of European market together with the GBP. The ECB held rates at 0.75%
EUR JPY likewise has tumbled from 127.45 down to 124.45, 300 pips down.

AUD
AUDUSD continued it slides although the unemployment rate remains unexpectedly and employment change were 5k more than expected, the AUD continues falling on expectation that the RBA will take action the next month. NAB Quarterly Business Confidence  revised previous quarter rating of -4 from -2,  and latest quarter shows a rating of -5 shows of poorer data. NAB Business Confidence has fallen for 4th consecutive quarters.
Right now, the AUDUSD  trade is in the money of almost 150 pips now.

NZD
Following the AUDUSD, NZDUSD tumbled as well, from 0.8457 down to 0.8300 after it’s release of poor employment change (q/q) although unemployment rate did fell from 7.3% down to 6.9%.

JPY
The JPY is the great mover of the GBPJPY & EURJPY. The JPY traded down to 93.20 before heading back to 93.90 after the timing where GBP and EUR rallied. Likewise, the JPY fell after failing to break previous high. Japan posted better than expected in Core Machinery Orders, 2.8% to -0.7%.

US
Unemployment claims fell from 371K to 366K, although it was more than what was predicted. Non-farm productivity was -2.0% compared to previous quarter of -2.9% while Unit Labor Cost increased to 4.5%. Mostly USD pairs fell (i.e. the Dollar strengthen against them)

The following are my CCY pairs analysis. 🙂

NZDUSD 8FEB13

GBPJPY 6FEB – Hit SL due to fundamental push.

EURJPY 6FEB13

Strengthening yen?

The announcement from BOJ yesterday has dragged most JPY based pairs down. As follows are my analysis on the GBPJPY, EURJPY & USDJPY 🙂

At the same time, the BOE would be announcing their MPC Meeting Minutes  if there will be any interest rate cut or increase of asset purchasing. U.K will also be releasing their Claimant Court Change and the unemployment, expecting an increased in Claimant Court while U.K unemployment is expected to remain at 7.8%.

British PM, David Cameron said to be holding out an “in-out referendum” on EU membership in more than 40years. He will be speaking to the public in just a few minutes time. Let’s see how is it gonna be impacting the sterling pound. – http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9819717/Cameron-Ill-hold-an-in-out-vote-on-Europe.html

USDJPY 23JAN13

GBPJPY 23JAN13

EURJPY 23JAN13