Updates on AUDUSD with new chart on NZDUSD, German ZEW Economic sentiment up next – what to expect?

Here’s an update on AUDUSD after the completion and re-test of neckline.

Click here for the charting analysis: FX Analysis – 12AUG14 – AUD

NAB business confidence increased from 8 to 11 in July while the Housing price increased by 1.8% in the month of July.

In the daily charting, AUDUSD is trading within 100 & 200 SMAs, trending upwards. This view however, contrary to the mid-term view where 100SMAs crosses over 200SMAs and trending downwards together with H&S reversal, expecting to hit down to 0.9160 – 0.9200 range. Nevertheless, we would take cautious of the lack of bear force in this pair and creating divergence in price action. Taking this into consideration, the AUDUSD likely to make some correction at the 0.9180 – .9210. A long position in taking advantage of the correction movement is preferred.

 

On top of that, here’s a new chart released for NZDUSD:

Click here for the charting analysis: FX Analysis – 12AUG14 – NZD

In the daily chart, we see that NZDUSD bearish move seems stronger than expected. The kiwi has been closing lower for 4 consecutive weeks and it’s moving towards 100SMAs. Given how the kiwi has been performing for the past year, we note especially the SMAs as a good support for NZDUSD. On top of that, we see that NZDUSD broke the trendline and is currently testing @ June 3 low. However in the shorter term, we note of the similarity movement when NZDUSD tried to hit 0.8800 level. Therefore, a LONG position is preferred, on expectation of correction after 4 consecutive weeks bearish move. 

 

We will be monitoring on EURUSD upon German ZEW Sentiment releasing today. Market expectation is expecting a lower sentiment due to Russia’s retaliation on EU & US sanction on Russia. Tentatively, EURUSD still remain bearish overall and would be expecting a short correction this week.

RBNZ decision next, U.S’s retail sales and Euro slumped, To be updated.

In less than 3hours, RBNZ will be releasing their interest rate decision where most economist are expecting RBNZ to hike rate by 25 basis points. I will drop an update on NZDUSD and AUDUSD after the decsion.

 

Meanwhile, EURUSD has hit my first TP level @ 1.3510 before rebounding back to 1.3530, I am still maintaining bearish view with cautious as I do note that there may be a chance of correction.

EURJPY has hit both TP (139.10 & 138.10) and poised to move towards 137 next. Am expecting short correction to EURJPY due to over-sold in this pair.

Everything to be updated with charts and explanation after RBNZ’s decision.

 

 

HSBC Flash PMI on Tues, ECB’s decision on Thursday, NFP on Friday, what to expect?

The start of the June is gonna be real volatile with data coming all over the world. Here’s the upcoming data for the week to note.

 

 

With these data coming in the week, please find the below my technical analysis on the following pairs:

Here’s the spreadsheet of my analysis –> FX Analysis – 01JUNE14 (click to download and view)

EURUSD

Last week, I called for a SHORT in EURUSD given the market sentiment expects more easing from the ECB with hints dropped by Draghi. Also I mentioned that, we would be expecting a short correction in this pair and amended TP1 to 1.3600, and it indeed hit 1.3600 and goes all the way to 1.3685 lowest, before closing up to 1.3630 on Friday night.
Similarly, I would see 1.3670 as the KEY support/resistance level. I would take up a position in 1.3650-70 level with higher SL at 1.3750 and targetting 1.3470 which would be the end-zone for double top.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD trades near 1.7000 level in early May only to find itself meets with the bears in at that level. With that in mind, we see GBPUSD traded 200 pips down the following week and hit 1.6691 low last seen on 16 April 2014. Currently, I would be expecting more bears to come into picture. That is, IF only GBPUSD closes below the 100SMAs in daily chart, would more or less confirm the uptrend reversal. Of course, I would be cautious that this could just be a correction in the GBPUSD if by this week it does not close below 1.6700 level.
In mid-term, I would short the GBP with in mind that ECB’s decision could drag the pound down too. The most I would expect the GBPUSD to retest 1.6800 level before hitting down to 1.6600 level.

NZDUSD

China’s Manufacturing PMIs showed of 50.8 reading beating estimates 50.7 and increased from 50.4 last month. With this data, the NZDUSD and AUDUSD high likely open gap high and trade around 0.8500 – 0.8530 level and 0.9320 – 30 level respectively.
Ideally, if the NZDUSD traded around 0.8510 (which is also the double top resistance), it would be the best situation to short the NZDUSD.
With the divergence view of AUDUSD & NZDUSD is well supported by the charting of AUDNZD where daily chart broke through Feb-14 & Dec’13 high and set a tone towards 1.1100 level again.
Previously, I recommended a LONG position expecting to retest 0.8600 – 0.8620 level, only to find it hitting 0.8570 highest. Given that 0.8500 has been breached, and the closing below 0.8520 last Friday, it could indicates more bears waiting to enter the market at 0.8500 – 0.8520 level.

AUDUSD

China’s Manufacturing PMIs showed of 50.8 reading beating estimates 50.7 and increased from 50.4 last month. With this data, the NZDUSD and AUDUSD high likely open gap high and trade around 0.8500 – 0.8530 level and 0.9320 – 30 level respectively.
Unlike the NZDUS, the movement for AUDUSD would high likely follow through the formation of double bottom formed in H1 chart. On top of that, we see divergence between price action and indicators shows of potential uptrend continuation (to complete Wave5 of Elliot wave).
With the divergence view of AUDUSD & NZDUSD is well supported by the charting of AUDNZD where daily chart broke through Feb-14 & Dec’13 high and set a tone towards 1.1100 level again.

 

USDCHF

Currently still maintain baerish outlook for USDCHF. As we note that there’s reversal patterns formed in daily and H4 (especially a break-out from H1 channel trendline), I would be expecting more bears to join in the crowd.
Most importantly would be the decision on Thursday by the ECB. Currently we know that the Euro is currently being priced in with market expectation of rate cut to negative deposit move. It’s a matter of how much the ECB is gonna do when it comes on Thursday. More than expected, can expect that the Euro to drop further than 1.3600 level.
With that in mind, it can be expected that, most traders will take a short position in EURCHF & EURJPY, i.e. strengthen CHF and YEN, something that we would want to have in this pair.
Of course, not to mention the Euro has always been anti-dollar, so, we have to watch out if the SNB policy maker views on the EURCHF.

Reduced demand for Safe Haven + incoming Carney’s speech and US Prelim GDP ahead, what’s next?

The reduction in the demand for safe haven sent the weakening of gold price, Japanese Yen, Kiwi and Swiss Franc. On top of that, the pro-US data creates stronger dollar against most pairs and leads to bears taking place.

Nevertheless, punters/investors/traders are going to look towards BOE’s speech today, 3AM in Singapore time, for hawkish or dovish tone towards U.K monetary policy.

 

All three forecast are currently in position (although NZD missed by 5pips difference) and expecting the continuation of flow.

Here’s the update on my analysis –> FX Analysis – 28MAY14

USDCHF:

Similarly to Gold, Kiwis, and JPY, the demand for CHF fell once again as the risk subsided upon Ukraine’s election, creating weaker CHF to test 0.900 level. As I noted of the positive Dollar news, we see strength in the dollar, creating an uptrend in USDCHF and possibly formed a double bottom, inverse of the EURUSD.
Nevertheless, I would see tomorrow closing if the USDCHF indeed closed above the 200-SMAs level (therefore hitting my SL) before any decision on the USDCHF.
Currently in position shorting CHF 0.8960 -0.8980 level and maintain bearish view on the franc.

 

NZDUSD:

The Kiwis went up to near 0.8580 after hitting 0.8525 low on Monday morning. Currently, we are expecting the Kiwi to test 0.8500 level after failing to breakout from 0.8600. My guess would be the reduced in risk appetite – lower demand on safe haven currency – drove both Kiwi and Gold price down. (FYI – Gold hit 1264, lowest since early Feb-2014)
Monday we see narrowed trade balance for New Zealand, which is not really surprising given the lower demand in China and export inflation due to high NZD. There’s report on housing price declining in NZ. The RBNZ decision of rate hike or maintain would be a decision mover on NZD.
I would still remain my bullish view on NZD, taking 0.8500 as a good supporting level.

 

EURUSD:

The US dollar strengthen against most pairs on the pro-dollar news. Core duable goods comes much stronger than expected and CB Consumer sentiment was higher too.
Draghi did mention that countries should do more to create more growth.
Mentioned at the start of the week that the EURUSD will retest 1.3650 – 1.3670 level and it indeed come to past. However, there’s a slight change in view towards EURUSD, given that the bears is getting weaker in H4 and H1, signalling a potential correction within this week and probably back to previous high level (1.3670).
I will still maintain my short view but amended TP1 to get out earlier.

I will try to find time to do an analysis on GBPUSD if possible by tomorrow and Aussie. 🙂

 

Billionaire Poroshenko wins Ukraine’s election, Unexpected PMIs with upcoming ECB’s meeting, what to expect?

Ukraine’s polling has elected Billionaire Poroshenko as the next Ukraine’s President. The tycoon is expected to reform and boost employment and growth in Ukraine and resolve the violence with the activists.

Thursday the French’s manufacturing PMI contracted unexpectedly, pulling doubts  if the economy is dragging the eurozone as a whole. With such a poor data coming up, I would like to see what does the ECB’s President Mario Draghi have to say (or seeking hint from comments) on the upcoming decision in next meeting.

As follows would be the analysis for the week, covering EURUSD, NZDUSD and also USDCHF (new cover)

Click  FX Analysis – 26MAY14 for charting purposes.

Swiss Franc (USDCHF)

The Swiss franc has been strengthening against the dollar for a year now, dropping from 0.9879 to 0.8713 and closed at 0.8954 last Friday. We do note that, there may seems to have a reversal in trend given that the dollar has been strengthening for the past couple of weeks. In long run, we may see it going back to 0.9000 level.
In the mid-term, we want to be cautious that the USDCHF does not close above 200-SMAs in daily charting. As long as we do see it not crossing/closing above OR seeing it break out of the resistance line of double bottom, we (bears) should prepared to short the USDCHF.
One thing to note: in hourly charting, we are seeing couple of reversal sign at the resistance level. This would lead me to believe that in the short-run, we can expect the USDCHF to get weaken i.e. weaker dollar, to retest 0.8860-80 support.

 

Euro-dollar (EURUSD)

Last Thursday, French’s Manufacturing PMIs fallen unexpectly below 50 together with German’s PMIs falling down to 52.9 from 54.1, creating more uncertainty if the eurozone is indeed recovering as what the market has expected. This also increases the possibility the need of reducing interest rate by the ECB to spur growth in hitting targetted inflation.
Technically speaking, we seen double top formed after breaking below 1.3670, the supporting line. Going forward towards next meeting, I would see the Euro trading between 1.3560 – 1.3670 level.
Historically speaking, most of double top break-out would see a re-test at the neckline. Therefore, currently, we can look out to short the Euro when it’s nearer to these level.

 

Kiwis (NZDUSD)

This weekend would show the result of the polling in Ukraine – as I post – now. Last week, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has signed gas agreement with China and also pressured on Ukraine to pay up on 3.5billion worth of natural gas related debt. Russia will be cutting off the the supply by 1st June 2014. This may increase investor’s risk appetite seeking safe haven.
Fundamentally, we see the increasing tension in the Ukraine with the seperatist and a higher chance of the RBNZ’s hawkish view. Not mentioning that China facing slower growth may give a mixed view on it.
Technically speaking, the high currency may prompt the RBNZ intervention with increasing export inflation may affect dairy products. We seen island reversal and last week closing showed that bears are in control currently.
However, in terms of short to mid terms view, I would look to have a correction in the NZDUSD after touching 0.8520 to 0.8600 level. Of course, once there’s a breakout from 0.8500, we can high conclude of double top formed.

 

Russia’s troops pulled back from the East border, France/German PMI ahead.

We have finally see more bears appearing in the NZDUSD after a few days trading above 0.8630. Would be expecting target to be hit in a few days time, especially when we are having HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI coming up on Thursday.

Also, today morning i read that the Russia’s troop is pulling back from east border eased slightly on the tension in Ukraine. Gold has dropped below 1300 once again upon hitting 1305 on Monday and trading at 1294 currently as i post. Wouldn’t advise to trade in gold unless you are trading side-way, between 1270 – 1315.

Read more ono Russia’s troop pull back here:  http://www.wjla.com/articles/2014/05/ukraine-putin-pulls-russian-troops-back-from-eastern-border-103259.html

We do not forget that there’s a polling upcoming this weekend, therefore I would be advisable to get out of any trades over the weekend. Nevertheless, here are the analysis for EURUSD & NZDUSD.

I will continue the blog tomorrow more on the Swiss Franc, USDJPY and EURJPY.

NZDUSD update:

Russia’s President, Vladmir Putin has began to withdraw troops from the east border ahead of the 25th May polling day and tigher sanction from the EU and US if the polling day was disrupted by any activists.
This has reduced much of the risk tension of the Ukraine’s crisis and therefore reduced in the demand for safe haven currency, i.e. Kiwi, Yen, Gold, CHF etc.
As such, Kiwi finally broke through the the crucial line as-I-termed-it and is currently trading below 0.8600.
Support on more downside of the Kiwi, unless we see more tension ahead of the polling day in Ukraine.

EURUSD update:

Thursday is the day where all the Europe PMIs will be out. Prior to that, we will receive the FOMC’s Meeting Minutes.
Technically speaking, we do not see any trend that is worth entering. EURUSD is currently trading side-way and hovering around the supporting line for double top. As we noted, if EURUSD breakout from 1.3650 (previous low), it is not suprising that the it heads down to 1.3480 and towards 1.3290 as the end-zone of double top.
All these forecast, is possible, ECB’s President Mario Draghi is really comfortable at more easing i.e. cutting interest rate.
Therefore, tomorrow PMIs is definitely one of the key economic data that would drive more bull/bears into the market.
I would take a buy for a short correction now.

FX Analysis – 20MAY14

18th May analysis :)

Last week I have recommended a SHORT in EURJPY, EURUSD, NZDUSD and LONG in USDJPY.

Both EURJPY, EURUSD has both hit my take profit target with NZDUSD hitting Stop Loss level before heading back to what-I-termed-it crucial supporting/resistance level.

At the same time, USDJPY is in the progress with a buy @ 101.30 (though I recommended buy at 101.25) and closes at 101.53.

This week, I still believe focus should be on EURUSD and NZDUSD given the ongoing focus on China’s growth (PMIs data on Thursday)

EURUSD 

Once again, we see the EURUSD hit another support level. A few things may have triggered the movement on EUR, and I noted it may be prelimary the French Prelim GDP previous quarter that may have signal that France, is one the EU country that aren’t that rosy as seen. Inflation target has not been hit as to what was expected in the Eurozone, which is prompting ECB to reduce history low interest by another 25basis point.
This week, we will be expecting more movement on Thursday with all the PMIs going on for a show.
I will still maintain a bearish stance on EURUSD given that ECB might be going for a rate-cut again in June’s meeting.

 

NZDUSD

Ukraine’s poll is approaching and U.S and EU are threathening to increase in sanction in Russia if there’s any disruptive to the poll by the pro-russian group.
Russia is suspect to be under technical ression since Crimea has voted to part ways with Ukraine, which investment was hit badly and interest rate has hiked up.
The Kiwi, one of the demand of safe haven currency has been climbing steadily upwards towards Jul 2011’s high. However we do note that there’s a possiblity of reversal in movement after reversal patterns near resistance. Last week the Kiwi has traded more or less sideway, between range of 0.8690 – 0.8600.
We still note that in intra-day to swing position, we would looking out for any breakout in 0.8630 level, i.e. breakout from H4 SMAs and H1 crucial support/resistance level.

 

Here’s my analysis: FX Analysis – 18MAY14

Weekly updates: Week 24 part 2

Sorry for the late update on the NZDUSD, USDCAD.

Please find the attached the file for NZDUSD, USDCAD as of 9JUNE.

NZDUSD 9JUNE

USDCAD 9JUNE

 

So far here’s the update on previous analysis:

AUDUSD position has been filled @ 0.9410, 0.9380 missed by 1-2pips. TP target: 0.9510, followed by 0.9610

EURUSD position 1.3160 missed target by 20pips and since then the target was not seen anymore. Therefore, we have to cancel that position.

The same goes for GBPUSD, buy limit @ 1.5460, missed target by 30-40pips, and currently trading at 1.5580. Cancel position

USDCAD position filled @ 1.0210 short, TP 1.0150 and 1.0050. SL target is 1.0230.

NZDUSD short position was filled @ 0.7910, TP target @ 0.7780.

NZDUSD long position initially missed target by 30pips @ 0.7800 where low is 0.7828. – position to be cancelled.

GBP up, EUR down, U.S Non-farm employment next.

U.K posted more positive Service PMI than expected in the month of May, 54.9 against 53.1 expected and 52.9 previously.

On the other hand, we see the eurobloc retail sales falling by -0.5% against -0.2% previously (and expected) causing the EURUSD to fall as well.

Next up, is the U.S non-farm employment change, which would tell if there’s much more job creation than expected last month.

Here’s an update on the NZDUSD, USDCHF & USDCAD

Starting of with the USDCHF:

.

Commentary:
As noted, I still view the USDCHF as bullish in general. On main reason behind the bullishness is my take/view on the EURUSD that it’s bearish soon, and on also on the fact that in H1, we are seeing minor divergence in price action against MACD/RSI. Therefore, my take is to LONG if there’s a breakout from 0.9520 (i.e. LONG @ 0.9540), SL @ 0.9480 while TP1 @ 0.9600, TP2@ 0.9720.

USDCAD:

Commentary:
On the view of the USDCAD, we are taking note if the USDCAD will resist the channel trendline and head to test 1.0290 support level. Should there be any breakout, from 1.0290 level, next level is 1.0215 support. Therefore, my take is a SHORT @ 1.0350 with a SL @ 1.0380, TP 1 @ 1.0290, & TP2 @ 1.0230.

NZDUSD:

Commentary:
Took up a SHORT position @ 0.8045, after a rising star pattern formed at H1 chart. Therefore, Short @ 0.8045, TP @ 0.7960, SL @ 0.8080. Will be expecting the NZDUSD to retest previous low first and monitor further more.

 

 

Updates in week 23 analysis

Hello everyone,

A few days ago, I have made analysis on most of the USD based major pairs (EUR, GBP, CHF, CAD, NZD, AUD). And true enough, we are seeing the USD weaken after a poor ISM Manufacturing data of 49.0 only against 50.6 expectations and 50.7 in previous month. The US has not seen pessimism since Dec’12 2012, and probably the first decline below 50.0 this year so far.

Of course, the bulls rider, rides on this opportunity and most of my prediction came to past. Let’s try to recap on my stand:

EURUSD:
My take was to LONG; it hits 1.2970, TP 1 @ 1.3050, TP 2 @ 1.3100. Both TP hit.
Subsequently, next move is to SHORT the EURUSD @ 1.3140, TP 1.2980, 1.2740. (Price was not achieved, EURHSD highest was 1.3106 on Monday)

No. of pips: + 210 pips

GBPUSD: 
Initial take was LONG @ 1.5170, TP 1 @ 1.5280, TP 2 @ 1.5340. SL @ 1.5125 & 1.5070. However, the opening on Monday was 1.5190 and went up without looking back. Therefore, TP target would have been hit, but position unfulfilled.
Then, next move is to SHORT @ 1.5300, TP 1 @ 1.5170, TP2 @ 1.5030, SL @ 1.5340, 1.5420. Position filled, but hit SL1 @ 1.5340.

No. of pips: -40pips

AUDUSD
Both take is to LONG @ 0.9560 @ 0.09520 with a SL @ 0.9470. TP 1: 0.9690, TP2: 0.978, TP 3: 0.9880. The AUDUSD hits 0.9790 highest, hitting TP 1 & 2 range, but not TP3 after positive China Manufacturing PMI, Positive Retail Sales m/m, higher Company profit q/q etc.. most importantly is the poor U.S ISM Manufacturing that creates this opportunity. The sad part is, the positive news of the China Manufacturing PMI has caused gap in Monday’s opening and therefore failed to fill in position.

No. of pips: 0pips

NZDUSD
My take is to LONG @ 0.7930 (failed to hit target by 10pips), TP @ 0.8040 (HIT) and TP 2 @ 0.8130 (Missed by 13 pips).
Second take is to SHORT @ 0.8000 (HIT), TP @ 0.7920 & 0.7820, SL @ 0.8030 (Hit SL) & @ 0.8080 (HIT SL again too)

No. of pips: -110 pips

USDCHF
Both take is to LONG @ 0.9600 (last week position) & LONG @ 0.9540 (this week position) – Both HIT, TP 1 @ 0.9730 (HIT last week), TP2 @ 0.9830 (unfilled, missed by 40pips), SL for both is 0.9470 (both hit – on the poor U.S. ISM Manufacturing results)

No. of pips: -70pips

USDCAD
Both take is to SHORT @ 1.0400 (HIT) & 1.0445 (unfilled), TP 1 @ 1.0300 (HIT) & 1.0230 (unfilled; missed by 30pips), SL @ 1.0470 (NOT hit)

No. of pips: + 100pips

Total gain: 100pips. (if only AUDUSD and NZDUSD order was filled by that 10-20pips difference) Monday earnings would be more than this result.

Nevertheless, we want to move on see for more potential result. Please stay tune tomorrow for mid-week updates. Cheers 🙂