Hello everybody,
Please find the updates for the AUDUSD, EURUSD & GBPUSD pair as follow. Will be updating the USDCHF, USDCAD & NZDUSD pair tonight as I work them out. Also, I will be probably try to add in USDJPY analysis too if time permit. 🙂
As usual, this week economic calendar are as follow: Calendar-02-06-2013 (Source from DailyFx.com)
As you can see, this week is the start o the week. We will be taking note of AUDUSD, EURUSD & GBPUSD (and USDJPY) more than any other pairs due the reasons of the number of news coming out this week.
AUDUSD
Firstly, on Saturday morning, China released it’s official Manufacturing PMI data showing an improvement of 50.8 against 49.9 expected and 50.6 prior month. This is definitely a boost factor the AUDUSD, which we are likely to see a surge in buyer of the AUDUSD pair. On 23 May, HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI showed a contraction of 49.6, while the official Manufacturing PMI shows expansion of 50.8. My guess is, the AUDUSD hit below 0.9600 level on Friday closing is because of the fear of Flash PMI tells of some story to some traders. Nevertheless, this fundamental news is bringing a strong case on the AUDUSD analysis.
On Monday morning, we are looking towards Australia’s Retail Sales m/m as well as Company Operating Profits q/q to give a better sense of direction of the how well is the economy is doing. Also HBSC Final Manufacturing data. Of course, the RBA decision on the Cash Rate on Tuesday morning (which i doubt they will cut given last month they cut to 2.75%). On Wednesday, the GDP of Australia followed by Thursday’s Trade Balance and finally Saturday morning we are looking to China’s Trade Balance, to understand if there’s improvement on the import and export from China demand.
EURUSD
Monday morning, we are looking to the official Spanish Manufacturing PMI as well as Italy’s Manufacturing PMI. On Tuesday, we are seeing Spain’s unemployment change, where economist expecting more unemployment change in Spain. Then followed by Wednesday where we are looking to Spain & Italy’s Services PMI and the Eurozone’s Retail Sales.
Then comes Thursday, where we are looking the 10-year bond auction from Spain & France (particularly more interested in Spain, to know if borrowing cost is increasing [i.e. higher risk]). Also German’s Factory Order. Most importantly the ECB’s interest rate which was cut to 0.50% last month, and the comment from the ECB’s President, Mr. Mario Draghi.
Last but not least, German’s Industrial Production and Trade Balance released on Friday.
GBPUSD
On Monday, U.K. Manufacturing PMI would have certain impact on the GBPUSD, given that economist are expecting an expansion of 50.3 compared to contraction previous month of 49.8. Then on Tuesday (could be released no later than 7th June), we can have a better understanding of the U.K Housing Price Index (HPI) as well as Construction PMI.
On Wednesday, we would then see U.K Service’s PMI and as the Euro, the BOE will be highlighting if any rate cute or increment of their Quantitative Easing purchase. Most importantly, we want to note the MPC Rate Statement to look out for any clues of their current QE movement or if inflation/economy is of any concern.
Then we will close off on Friday with U.K’s consumer inflation expectation and Trade Balance.
Most importantly, this week we are seeing and expecting more U.S. news to impact on the movement of the currency given that most major pairs analysis are done against the USD. This week data could further hint to everyone if the Fed are going to taper their QE program, something a pro-dollar person would love it.
Happy trading! 🙂 Look out for more analysis later tonight or tomorrow morning.
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